NBA Betting Guide for Monday 3/21/22: Targeting 3 Over/Unders
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Under (227.0) - 3 stars
The Los Angeles Lakers list LeBron James as questionable in a potential return to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers, and as a reminder, they're without Anthony Davis.
Our model does like the Cavaliers a good bit and considers their moneyline (-240) as a three-star play, and that's because it likes the Cavaliers to win this game with an 80.9% probability. My model has it at 68.9%, so I'm less in on the Cavs outright than numberFire's model suggests, but hey, that's just me.
The rising total and the usual questionable status implies James will play.
So, for me, a better argument can be made on the under (227.0).
Though these teams are both 7-3 in terms of overs in their past 10 games, the long-term trends and expected data point to the under. And the total is probably a bit inflated due to the recent results.
numberFire's algorithm views this game as 63.9% likely to stay under 227 points, and my algorithm likes this game to total only 217 points.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Under (215.5) - 3 stars
This is a marquee game between the 47-24 Miami Heat and 43-27 Philadelphia 76ers, but our model isn't expecting a ton of points in it.
The expected final score here is 104.76-104.68 in favor of Miami, adding up to 209.44 points.
That's noticeably lower than the over/under (215.5), and our model likes the under to hit with a 62.3% probability.
In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is 19-6 (76.0%), as well.
In 11 games with James Harden, the 76ers do have an over rate of 60.0%, yet it's not because of their own offense: they've surpassed their own implied total in 45.5% of those games but are allowing points defensively.
Overs in Miami's past 10 games are 4-6, and Miami has surpassed their implied total in just three of those past 10 games, falling shy by an average of 6.2 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
Under (229.5) - 2 stars
Another good game and another under? Yep.
The 42-30 Minnesota Timberwolves travel to face the 43-28 Dallas Mavericks tonight. Dallas is favored by 3.5 (and our model likes a one-star lean on the Timberwolves to cover that).
The best value here is the under (229.5). Our algorithm likes that to hit with a 60.7% probability.
The Mavericks remain an under-friendly team with an over record of 4-6 in their past 10 and an over record on their implied total of just 2-8. They're 29th in points per game (106.3) over their past 10.
Despite the Timberwolves' dominance, their over rate in their past 10 is just 50.0%, and their implied total over rate is just 60.0%.