NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/16/22: 3 Totals to Side With
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards
The over/under (228.0) is too high in this game, per our model here at numberFire.
Algorithmically speaking, the total should be 223.7, giving us wiggle room for the under (228.0) recommendation we're getting as a two-star play.
Over the past 10 games, Denver Nuggets games have an over rate of just 37.5% (3-5-2), and the Nuggets themselves are 4-6 in going over their own implied total (falling short by 4.4 points, on average).
Conversely, Washington Wizards games have been very over-friendly recently with a 9-1 "over" record. Bending them for this matchup, though, our model is finding a lot of historical comps that say to go with the under.
In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is 23-2.
Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz
The two teams here have nearly identical records, but the home team has a big win probability advantage (74.7%), per our model.
The Chicago Bulls (41-27) travel to play the Utah Jazz (42-26). Chicago is 16-17 on the road; Utah is 24-11 at home.
Their first game, in Chicago, did go the Bulls' way (107-99), yet that was way back in late October.
For tonight's game, numberFire's model loves the Jazz moneyline (-200) as a three-star play, and their spread (Utah -4.5) is a two-unit suggestion.
My model actually has the spread at 6.7 points for tonight's matchup in Utah's favor, as well.
numberFire's algorithm is liking the over (225.5) as a three-star play, too. It's rating as 65.0% likely to hit.
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
I'm going to close it out with another under play, which gives us three totals in play for the evening here.
Our model likes the under (219.5) as a three-unit recommendation (i.e. a three-star play).
This matchup between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors is rating as 62.1% likely to stay under, good for an 18.6% return on investment.
The projected point total in this game is just 213.4 points, and the under -- in the 25 closest comparable games to this one historically -- is 21-4.
We're seeing the line trend down but still have room for value on the under, per the model here.
