NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/15/22: Backing 3 Underdogs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers
This game pits the 47-22 Memphis Grizzlies against the 23-46 Indiana Pacers in the Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
This is the first matchup of the season between these two teams (but they play again on March 24th).
The Pacers are a 7.0-point home underdog, and our model rates the Pacers +7.0 as a one-star play.
Notably, Memphis is 6-4 in their past 10 games with a +4.6 point differential, but if you adjust that for opponent faced, they're actually at a -0.8, per my data. Ja Morant is also doubtful tonight, and that doesn't help.
The Pacers are 4-6 over their past 10 with an opponent-adjusted point differential of -4.4. That still leaves room to like the Pacers to cover.
There's also a one-star lean on the over (234.5). Our model sees the over as 53.2% likely to go over. My model likes the point total at 240.1, so it also likes the over here.
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic
Even with numberFire's model liking the Brooklyn Nets (65.9% win probability) a lot, it still likes the Orlando Magic to cover a 10.5-point spread as a home underdog.
That's a four-star suggestion (i.e. a four-unit recommendation).
In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Magic are 17-8 against the spread (68.0%).
Of note, the Nets have a +13.5 net rating in non-garbage situations in games with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but without James Harden while way overperforming offensively based on their shot quality rating.
I'm more drawn to the over (232.0). My model rates this game as 56.9% likely to go over.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Here's another game with a big favorite. The Miami Heat are favored by 13.0 at home and are 86.2% likely to win, via numberFire's model.
But that still leaves room for a one-star suggestion on the Detroit Pistons' spread (+13.0). The projected point gap here is 12.1 points, and the Pistons are 53.5% likely to cover.
My model has the point gap at 11.9, so there's a lean on the Pistons to cover there, also.
Over their past five games with Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry, the Heat are 5-0 with an adjusted point-differential of +4.9.
In the Pistons' past 10 games, they're a respectable 5-5 with just a -4.6 adjusted point differential.
