NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 3/14/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Mar 14th, 2022
Mike Conley's three-point props stand out in a matchup with the Bucks. Which other props should you bet on?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Mike Conley to Make 3+ Three-Pointers (+180)

The Utah Jazz host the Milwaukee Bucks, and it's a great spot for Utah's shooters.

Milwaukee has allowed the ninth-highest three-point attempt rate (41.4%) over the last 15 games. For the year, the Bucks give up 9.2 three-point tries per game to point guards, the most in the league.

On top of that, the Bucks (9th in pace over the last five games) are a big pace-up matchup for the Jazz (24th), and the game's 233.0-point total points to a high-scoring affair.

Mike Conley should get his in this spot, and we project the veteran guard to make 2.6 three-pointers.

If you want a safer route, Conley is -188 to make over 1.5 threes, but I prefer rolling the dice on him to hit at least three triples at a more enticing +180.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 Points (-104)

Our model really likes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go nuts against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets are 20th in defensive rating over their past five, and this game holds a gaudy 230.5-point total. In their past seven games, Charlotte is permitting the ninth-most points per game to point guards (26.5).

SGA is dominating the Oklahoma City Thunder offense with Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort sidelined, boasting a huge 30.0% usage rate over the last three games -- 8.3 percentage points above anyone else's on OKC. He's scored 31-plus points in four of his previous five contests and seven of his past nine.

Our algorithm has Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 30.0 points in this plum matchup.

Joel Embiid Over 10.5 Rebounds (-122)

Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic square off tonight in what should be a whale of a battle between two of the leading MVP candidates.

There's some value to be had on Embiid's rebound prop, per our numbers.

While the date with Jokic and company is not an easy matchup for boards, the Denver Nuggets have surrendered 14.9 rebounds per night to centers across their last seven games. That's only the 13th-fewest.

Embiid has snagged 16, 12, 14 and 15 rebounds in his last four games.

We forecast Embiid to pull down 12.0 boards, making the over an appealing bet.