3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 3/11/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 10.5 Rebounds (+108)
Wendell Carter Jr. has been a monster on the boards of late.
Across his last eight games, he's pulled down at least 11 boards six times, and one of the exceptions was a 10-rebound outing.
Carter is taking on a Minnesota Timberwolves squad that sports the third-highest rebound rate (54.1%) over the past five games, so they're good on the boards overall. But Minnesota has permitted the sixth-most rebounds per game to power forwards (11.3) over the last 15 games, and it's a T-Wolves side that Carter snagged 14 rebounds against earlier this season.
With Carter averaging 12.7 rebounds per night in March, I like taking the over at a nice price.
Deandre Ayton Under 17.5 Points (-104)
Over the last 15 games, the Raptors are holding the center position to 21.2 points per game, the eighth-fewest. Toronto (23rd in pace over the past five games) also represents a pace-down spot for the Phoenix Suns (8th) while the Raps sit 6th in defensive rating in that time.
Ayton has benefited lately from being without Devin Booker and Chris Paul, but Booker returned last game. With both Paul and Booker off the floor this year, Ayton owns a 23.6% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. But with Booker on and CP3 off, Ayton's usage rate drops to 19.4%.
Our algorithm projects Ayton for only 15.7 points.
LaMelo Ball Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+112)
The Charlotte Hornets are on the road versus the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Pels have been surrendering a lot of three-point tries. Over the last 15 games, New Orleans is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 43.7%, the second-highest.
While LaMelo Ball isn't always a high-volume shooter from deep, the matchup helps, and he's sunk at least three trifectas in half of his last six games.
With both teams in the top half of the league in pace over their past five outings, the total at 226.0 points and a tight spread of 3.0 points, this should be a great game environment for Ball.
We project him to hit 2.7 three-pointers, slightly over this line. With our model leaning that way and the over (+112) being at a much friendlier price than the under (-142), I like backing Ball to drill at least three treys.