NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/8/22: What the Trends Say About the Clippers/Warriors Total
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets
The algorithm here is taking a pretty firm stand on one side in this game, and it's not on the Brooklyn Nets.
Our model loves the Charlotte Hornets' spread (+4.5) and moneyline (+172). It actually views the Hornets as a sizable favorite (66.1%).
Since the trade deadline and in non-garbage situations, the Hornets have a net rating of +2.5. In games with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but without James Harden, the Nets' net rating is +2.3.
Interestingly, the Hornets have a shot quality rating of 56.0% but an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 52.9%. They're underperforming a tad.
The Nets, conversely, have overperformed their shot quality (52.0%) with their eFG% 56.2%.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Hornets are 13-12 outright and 17-8 against the spread.
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
These two squads met back in November, which was a 96-89 home win for the Milwaukee Bucks over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Tonight, the Thunder are 13.0-point home favorites. Our model likes them to cover as a two-unit suggestion.
Oklahoma City, in their past 10 games, is 7-3 against the spread despite their 3-7 outright record. They also have a 60.0% cover rate at home on the full season.
The Thunder will be without Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey but will have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a split in which they have a non-garbage net rating of -2.0, which is honestly really good for them. Public perception isn't nearly as high.
Further, in the 25 top comparable games to this matchup, teams repping the Thunder are 15-10 against the spread despite a 1-24 overall record.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
In this game, it's not the spread or moneyline we're targeting but rather the total (222.5).
The Los Angeles Clippers' injury list is pretty lengthy, headlined by the absence of Paul George. The Golden State Warriors are in a better situation.
numberFire's algorithm anticipates a total of 216.4 points, leaving the under as 62.4% likely. The expected return there is 19.1%.
The Warriors have the fourth-lowest over rate (44.6% in the NBA), and the Clippers' rate (48.5%) is shy of the league average (50.6%), too.
Also notably, the Warriors have the lowest over rate on their own implied total (30.8%) in the league. Their points per game mark (111.2) is 4.0 points shy of their average implied total (115.2).
