NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/2/22: 3 Over/Unders We Can Back
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic got the better of the Indiana Pacers two days ago in Orlando by a score of 119-103, and they're now 1.0-point favorites over the Pacers.
Notably, the Pacers held the edge in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in that game (59.0% to 53.1%) but had a 20.2% turnover rate while the Magic's mark was 8.6%.
We can still get some leverage here as a result of the blowout on Monday even though the spread closed at -2.5 for the Magic on Monday and is now -1.0.
numberFire's algorithm likes the Pacers to cover the 1.0-point spread with a 58.3% probability (for an 11.3% expected return) and to win 55.9% of the time. That makes the spread and moneyline (-102) for Indiana two-unit suggestions, per our algorithm.
The algo here also likes the under (232.0) as a two-star play. This game is considered 59.3% likely to stay under that total.
My model views the under as 64.3% likely, as well, based on expected shooting splits for and against.
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Both sides in this game have been cold lately.
They're each 1-4 in their past five games; the Charlotte Hornets are 2-8 in their past 10, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are 5-5 in theirs.
The spread here is 3.5 for Cleveland, and their moneyline is -154.
numberFire's model is siding with Cleveland on both.
The spread is a two-star play, and the moneyline is actually a four-star suggestion, which makes sense because they're rating out as 77.3% likely to get the win, easily besting their implied odds of 60.6%.
The model also likes the over (217.0) as a three-star play and rates it as 62.8% likely.
My model is on the over also. It's sitting at a 67.9% probability. It also considers the Cavaliers to be 5.1-point favorites, so it's also on Cleveland -3.5.
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
The total in this game sits at 234.0, and that seems too high.
Our model here rates the under as a two-star play at that total, and this game is considered 62.4% likely to stay under 234.0.
The under -- in the 25 most similar games to this one in our database -- has a record of 23-2-0. Whew.
Using adjusted shooting efficiency splits since the trade deadline, my model anticipates an over/under of 226.2 points, leaving the under around 65.0% likely.
Notably, since the trade deadline, each team has a shot quality rating of 51.0% (basically your expected eFG%) but actual eFG% rates of at least 54.2%.
Conversely, the Sacramento Kings have let up a 50.0% shot quality rating with the New Orleans Pelicans at 51.0%. Despite the good defense, opponents have a 56.7% eFG% rate against them; the Pelicans' opponents are at 51.9%.
What that means: each side here is having some poor defensive luck lately, and that should lead to an under once it starts to regress.
