NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 2/25/22: The Suns Should Stay Hot Out of the Break

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards

These two teams have had plenty of roster turnover between trade deadline moves and injuries that impact tonight's game, so it is hard to get a grasp on large samples of data that we can trust in terms of on-court adjustments.

That said, numberFire's algorithm is viewing the Washington Wizards as the anticipated home favorites over the San Antonio Spurs with a 53.8% win probability.

However, they're 3.0-point home 'dogs with a +124 moneyline, and those are both bets that are getting two-star suggestions from our algorithm (i.e. two-unit recommendations).

We saw the spread open at +1.5 in this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook before climbing to a point where there is now value (again, +3.0).

My model anticipates a straight-up pick'em situation in this matchup -- another reason to like the spread first but also the value of the +124 moneyline.

Since 2016, 3.0-point home underdogs have a 54.0% cover rate by an average of 1.24 points with a win rate (45.4%) that outperforms the +124 implications (44.6%).

Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic

This is the final time we'll see the 15-43 Houston Rockets play the 13-47 Orlando Magic until next season. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

In the first meeting between these two, the Rockets won at home 118-116.

Tonight, numberFire's algorithm anticipates a score of 115.7 to 114.9 in favor of the Magic on their home court.

However, that leaves some value on the spread (Rockets +3.5). That's a two-star play, per the model, and has a 58.7% chance of hitting (good for a 12.0% return on investment).

This season, only the Brooklyn Nets (-6.9) have a worse spread-adjusted point differential than the Magic (-4.0). Houston is only a -2.0 on the road.

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns

We've got a green-light special in this game in the form of a pretty heavy moneyline: the Phoenix Suns are -350 to win outright.

Those -350 odds imply a probability of 77.8%. numberFire's algorithm has Phoenix's odds to beat the New Orleans Pelicans at 85.1%. That's good for a four-star suggestion (i.e. a four-unit recommendation). The expected return sits at 9.3% on a high-probability bet.

Among our 25 most comparable games to tonight's Pels/Suns matchup historically, teams representing the Suns are 23-2 (for a 92.0% win rate) and are 20-4-1 against the spread (80.0%).

There's a three-star suggestion on the spread (Suns -7.5) as well -- a wager that is drawing 74% of public tickets but with 80% of public money so far.

Even without Chris Paul, the Suns have a non-garbage-time net rating of +8.4 this season.