3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/14/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 Rebounds (+114)
Let's start out with a plus-money option on a rebounding prop with Keldon Johnson.
Our model likes Johnson for 6.7 rebounds tonight, which would normally put his over into consideration territory even before accounting for the fact that the over is +114.
Johnson has averaged 6.0 boards per game and -- at an NBA-average rebounding conversion rate -- should be averaging 5.9, so he's pretty set there in terms of expectation.
Though the Chicago Bulls are a good rebounding team, there's wiggle room on his baseline to get to six boards.
At a baseline projection of 6.7 rebounds, Johnson is rating out as 65.9% likely to go over here. You'll take that at +114 all day.
Mike Conley Over 12.5 Points (-116)
numberFire's model is keen on Mike Conley to get to at least a baker's dozen tonight in the points column.
Conley's median projection is 16.0 points.
Even if we were to use his four-year shooting splits (including a 39.1% three-point percentage and 52.4% effective field goal percentage, which are lower than his in-season rates of 42.3% and 55.8%, respectively) across his projected shooting volume tonight (5.6 two-point attempts, 6.8 threes, and 2.6 free throws), he'd be projected for a baseline of 15.5 points.
Using the lower base for sake of argument, my simulation model views Conley as around 72.0% likely to hit the over.
That's well above the -116 odd implications (53.7%).
Reggie Jackson Under 19.5 Points (-122)
While the odds on this prop are pretty hefty at -122, the value is there regardless.
Reggie Jackson is projected for 17.5 points across 32.0 minutes (0.55 points per minute), actually higher than his in-season rate of 0.54 and comfortably above his four-year rate of 0.52.
Adjusting Jackson's projected shot volume for his four-year splits, he'd be projected for 17.6 points, still shy of the 20 he needs to cash an over ticket.
The Golden State Warriors are a league-average defense against opposing backcourts, so we can't ramp up the efficiency projections, either.
We can consider Jackson 68.0% likely to stick under here, given the baseline assumptions.