NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/8/22: Can the Timberwolves Continue Their Win Streak?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Neither side in this game is exactly trending.
The Indiana Pacers are 1-4 in their past five. The Atlanta Hawks are 2-3 in theirs.
Though these teams are slated to play four times in total this season, this will mark just the second matchup between them. In the first, the Hawks won 114-111 on the road despite losing in three of the four factors.
numberFire's model still anticipates that the Hawks get the win (69.1% likely to do so). However, the expected score is 118.9 to 113.6, a gap of 5.3 points. That's well within the margin of the spread (Hawks -9.5).
That puts the Pacers +9.5 into three-star territory (i.e. a three-unit wager). The algorithm likes the Pacers to cover with a 63.1% probability.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Pacers covered at a 68.0% rate.
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans
The Houston Rockets are 1-1 against the New Orleans Pelicans this season. They beat them 118-108 back in early December at home and then lost 120-107 at home two days ago.
That recent game has the spread trending. The Pelicans opened as 7.5-point home favorites over the Rockets, and that gap has moved to 9.0.
Again, our algorithm thinks that's too big a number. The projected score in this game is 116.7 to 112.1, a gap of 4.6 points.
My model, which accounts for recency and injuries, has the spread at 6.0, so it would've liked the opening 7.5 number. It loves the Rockets +9.0.
This season, road teams that are 8.0- to 10.0-point underdogs have a 59.7% cover rate. Since 2017, that rate is 54.2%.
(Editor's Note: New Orleans' Josh Hart was traded after this pick was published. His absence tonight may lower this spread throughout the day.)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
We're swapping from underdogs to a favorite -- and a road favorite, no less.
This game pits the Minnesota Timberwolves as 4.0-point road favorites over the Sacramento Kings.
Over the past 10 games, Minnesota has a huge advantage. They're 7-3 with a +4.3 point differential and a +2.6 spread-adjusted point differential.
The Kings, in that span, are 2-8 with a point differential of -9.7. Adjusting that for the spread (which naturally accounts for home/road splits, injuries, opponents, etc.), they're still a -5.6, which ranks 28th in the NBA in that sample.
The T'Wolves won the first matchup (107-97) between these two teams way back in November while the Kings struggled to get going from the floor.
numberFire's model lists the Timberwolves -4.0 as a one-star lean with a 53.1% probability and a 1.3% expected return.
The better play is their moneyline (-174). That's 67.3% likely and rates out as a two-unit suggestion.
