NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/7/22

Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.

Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

DeMar DeRozan Under 27.5 Points (-108)

There are some risks to taking DeMar DeRozan's under for his points prop today. However, there's also a chance it's won by tip-off.

DeRozan is currently projected for just 21.1 points by numberFire today against a stingy Phoenix defense. However, at this moment, that bakes in that his Chicago teammates Zach LaVine and Coby White will play. Both have missed the last two games and are listed as questionable for Monday.

Still, at just 23.93 points per 36 minutes when LaVine is on the court this season, the chances DeRozan falls short of this mark greatly increase if Zach plays. DeRozan does average 31.38 points per 36 minutes with LaVine off the floor, so the line probably stands as it does to hedge for LaVine's presence.

Of course, taking this prop then is about weighing probabilities. My lean towards the under is also based on Phoenix's second-best defensive rating (105.1) in the NBA. Even if DeRozan is a lone wolf, the Suns' D could really make him work. They're allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to small forwards overall (18.79).

Under this current mark at -108 odds would be a stellar target if LaVine suits up, but even if he can't, Mikal Bridges and the bevy of defensively-sound Phoenix wings still breathe life into it.

Gordon Hayward Over 3.5 Assists (+130)

The Hornets' four-game skid has really wildly adjusted their starters' props and projections, but Gordon Hayward's especially.

Hayward is just three games back from a stint in COVID-19 protocols. Due to blowouts and an initial minutes restriction, he hasn't topped 28 minutes in any of those contests. Still, with extra practices to ramp up conditioning, he probably returns closer to his full role tonight against Toronto.

Hayward's marks are all reduced, but especially at +130 odds, this prop stood out. Hayward is projected for 4.0 assists by numberFire's model, and he's averaging 4.02 assists per 36 minutes this season.

Really, just the workload is in question when evaluating the 43.5% implied odds that he reaches four-plus assists tonight. Charlotte has a solid implied team total (111.25), and if there's one team that's good to blast past a total with a wild number of possessions, it's the top-paced Hornets.

Recent downturns for both Hayward and Miles Bridges make both quality prop targets across the board.

Julius Randle Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)

There's a good chance Julius Randle's recent rebounding binge can keep rolling tonight in Utah.

It hasn't been luck-related. Randle's 23.5 rebounding chances per game in February only trails Jusuf Nurkic and Anthony Davis across the entire NBA. At a 59.6% conversion rate on those opportunities, Randle isn't significantly outperforming the league average for his position, either.

The Jazz are essentially the same rebounding matchup with Rudy Gobert and Hassan Whiteside starting. Utah loses just 0.1 percentage points in terms of defensive rebounding percentage with Gobert off the floor.

Randle has simply been more aggressive on the glass. He shared the court with a center for all 53 minutes of Saturday's loss to the Lakers, so the Knicks are not running a smaller lineup that would inherently give him more opportunities as of late.

The exact 50% implied probability behind these odds is a quality one to wager considering Randle's Knicks (27th in pace) are also in a massive pace-up environment against the host Jazz (13th in pace).