NBA Betting Guide for Friday 2/4/22: Siding With 3 Home Favorites
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors
Both sides in this game are coming off of wins from last night.
The Atlanta Hawks beat the Phoenix Suns 124-115 at home. The Toronto Raptors scored a 127-120 overtime win against the Chicago Bulls.
That puts some travel on the Hawks.
The Raptors are 2.5-point home favorites with a -136 moneyline, both bets that our model has interest in.
The spread bet is a one-star lean (a one-unit suggestion).
The moneyline (-136) implies win odds of 57.6%; our model puts their victory chances at 62.3%. That leaves an expected return of 8.2% on moneyline bets.
Since 2016, home teams favored by 1.5 to 3.5 have a 56.7% win rate and a 51.5% cover rate.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets
So far this season, the Denver Nuggets have had the New Orleans Pelicans' number. They're 2-0 against the Pels with wins of 120-114 and 116-105 with both of those games coming in New Orleans.
Now, they meet in Denver, where the Nuggets are 13-9 at home. New Orleans is just 8-19 on the road with a -6.9 point differential (-1.3 when adjusted for spread).
numberFire's model is big in on Denver here, rating their spread (-6.0) as a three-star play and their moneyline (-250) as a full five-star play.
Those moneyline odds are heavy at 71.4% in terms of probability. The model here gives Denver an 84.0% chance to win.
They're also 62.2% likely to cover the spread.
Since 2016, home teams favored by six have a 75.2% win rate and a 52.5% cover rate.
Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz
This game requires some injury adjustments.
The Brooklyn Nets without Kevin Durant on the floor but in games with James Harden and Kyrie Irving are just 4-4 this season with a non-garbage-time net rating of -6.2.
The Utah Jazz without Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles on the floor but with Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley in the game are 25-11 with a non-garbage net rating of 1.2.
That helps explain the spread (Utah -4.5) and moneyline (Utah -184).
The model at numberFire loves the Jazz to win (77.1%), leading to a four-star recommendation on the moneyline. The spread is a two-star play.
Home teams favored by 4.5 have a 57.2% cover rate since 2016, as well. It's a good number.
