3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/2/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tyrese Maxey Under 16.5 Points (-108)
Tyrese Maxey's massive showing Monday (33 points in an overtime win over Memphis) may have his line slightly inflated for Wednesday.
That game, of course, came with the 76ers' star center, Joel Embiid, resting. In January, Maxey had a 27.5% usage rate that he turned into 24.77 points per 36 minutes when Embiid was off the floor. When the two shared the court together, Maxey's usage rate tanked to just 14.6%, and he averaged a paltry 10.80 points per 36 minutes.
In short, when Embiid is off the floor, Maxey has a marquee role. When they share the floor, Embiid does all the heavy lifting. With Embiid back in the lineup, Maxey's scoring should take a nosedive.
If Monday's game did not exist, this line would be a no-brainer at the 51.9% implied probability it has. Maxey has failed to eclipse a lower bar of 14 points in five of the last eight games he's played with Embiid. With JoJo back in the fold, take the under here.
Anfernee Simons Over 3.5 Rebounds (+130)
The Lakers allow an abnormal amount of rebounds to guards, and that's worth knowing to bet rebounding props against them.
L.A. allows the second-most rebounds per game (7.33) to opposing point guards, and they allow the sixth-most boards (6.76) per game to listed shooting guards. Perhaps this is due to their own defensive rebounding style that funnels the ball to Russell Westbrook, but it's a noticeable trend this late into the season.
Portland's Anfernee Simons can exploit that on Wednesday. Simons let us down Monday with his three-point prop, but it wasn't volume-related. He took 12 shots. He just only made two of them. This prop won't really be based on any shooting trends. Simons averages 3.37 rebounds per 36 minutes on the season, but it is worth noting, he's projected for 4.1 tonight by numberFire's model -- likely due to an opponent adjustment.
The kingmaker of this bet, though, is the current price attached. The +130 odds are just about as solid as you can find before this line drops to 2.5 rebounds at a steeper price. If you're interested in exploiting the Lakers' rebounding issues in the backcourt, I'd move quickly on this one.
LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 Assists (+120)
LaMelo Ball's production fluctuates wildly, so betting a prop on him is not for the squeamish.
Even so, there is obvious value behind the 45.5% implied probability that Ball surpasses eight assists tonight against the Celtics. The Hornets' point guard is averaging 9.03 assists per 36 minutes this season during floor situations without Gordon Hayward, and Hayward will miss Wednesday's contest recovering from COVID-19 protocols.
Hayward's absence has opened the door for Ball to hit double-digit assists and cruise past this mark in two of his past three games.
I was as concerned as any about Ball's matchup with the slow-paced, defensive-minded Celtics, but Ball had at least nine assists in both prior meetings with Boston -- including 10 in a game last month.
numberFire has Ball's median projection gliding past this mark (7.8 assists), so the price tag was too hard to ignore in a game with a solid 223.5-point total.
