NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Joel Embiid Under 33.5 Points (-106)
It's a testament to how well Joel Embiid is playing that his points prop is at 33.5 points. Dude has been on a crazy tear, scoring at least 38 points in four straight.
Despite that, our model likes the under here.
Embiid is taking on the Los Angeles Lakers. While much has been said about LA's struggles, the Lakers are a respectable defensive team, checking in 15th in defensive efficiency, and they've given up only 21.1 points per game to centers, the 10th-fewest.
The recent return of Anthony Davis makes this a much tougher spot for Embiid than it would've been a week ago. AD played 24 minutes in his first (and only) game back, and we project him to log 28 minutes today. We all know what kind of defensive force Davis can be.
Our algorithm is expecting another big night from Embiid, but we think this line is just a bit too high, projecting the Philadelphia 76ers' star for 30.2 points.
Kevon Looney Under 6.5 Points (-104)
Kevon Looney goose-egged last game, failing to score despite playing 22 minutes. He actually didn't even take a shot. That's ... kinda impressive?
That donut halted what was nothing short of a scoring binge for him in which he went for 10, 8 and 13 points over a three-game assault on the league, the impacts of which are still being felt around the NBA.
Sarcasm aside, Looney is a good real-life role player on a very successful Golden State Warriors squad; he just doesn't score much. That's not his job.
Klay Thompson sat for two of the games in Looney's aforementioned three-game heater. The game in which Looney didn't register a point was Klay's first contest back. Over the last nine games, Looney has more outings with three or fewer shots (four) than he does with five-plus shots (one -- and it was six attempts).
With only fellow non-shooter Draymond Green as the lone key rotation player expected to be out tonight for the Dubs, Looney should be back to his passing, screening and rim-defending ways. Our model projects him to score 5.7 points.
