3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/26/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ja Morant Under 29.5 Points (-112)
I'm petrified to be on the bearish side of the budding MVP candidate tonight in San Antonio, but it feels like the right call.
Ja Morant and the Grizzlies visit the Spurs on Wednesday, and Morant's scoring prop sits at this lofty 29.5-point total after three straight 30-point efforts. There are still two distinct reasons I believe San Antonio can keep Morant from a fourth-straight game.
First, Morant's scoring well above his season pace at the moment. He only averages 27.43 points per 36 minutes on the season as a whole. Likely, the uptick is due to the Grizz missing Desmond Bane in the backcourt, but Bane has cleared COVID-19 protocols and is questionable for Wednesday. Morant sees a 1.9 percentage-point increase in usage without Bane on the floor, and that would dissipate if Bane suits up.
Second, the Spurs are decent at limiting scoring -- at least from distance. They only allow 33.3 three-point attempts per game (the sixth-lowest in the NBA). San Antonio does allow 50.2 paint points per game (third-most in the NBA), but when targeting an under on a scoring prop, Morant would at least have to earn it from inside rather than catching fire from deep.
numberFire has Morant projected for just 22.2 points tonight, cashing this under with ease should that median forecast hold true.
Caris LeVert Under 6.5 Assists (+114)
Even with the friendly matchup against Charlotte taken into consideration, numberFire's model projects LeVert for just 6.0 assists on Wednesday. That might be generous since LeVert averages just 5.81 assists per 36 minutes during floor situations where Indiana is without Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner.
Bizarrely, as a team, the Pacers average just 16.1 assists per 36 minutes during floor situations without that trio of players. That's down from their overall mark of 17.8 per 36 minutes this season. LeVert, Jeremy Lamb, and Chris Duarte, as capable isolation scorers, may just not share the ball possession-by-possession as much.
The odds make this bet a target. They imply just a 46.7% chance LeVert dishes seven or fewer assists in this matchup with Charlotte, but he's failed to hit that mark in six of his last nine games in total.
I'm a fan of fading the matchup here.
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110)
That makes the minutes of Wendell Carter Jr. more of an uncertainty than normal. Still, if he is able to receive a full load of minutes, Carter Jr. could smash by this prop against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Comeback Clips do several things well, but they are small as a rotation. As a result, L.A. has the worst estimated defensive rebounding percentage (73.9%) in the NBA. They also allow the most offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the entire league.
Carter Jr. can snag boards. This season, he leads the Magic with 12.43 rebounds per 36 minutes. The minutes part is crucial, but even with some sporadic run from the coaching staff, Carter Jr. has posted double-digit rebounds in 8 of his last 11 contests.
The Clippers are just an outlier matchup to target on the glass. Carter Jr.'s projection of 9.5 rebounds is fair in a vacuum for an expected 29.12 minutes, but the Clips' small lineup is not a vacuum.