3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/24/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (+112)

The Suns will be missing Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder on Monday, and that should thrust Mikal Bridges into all the minutes he can handle.

Bridges logged 35 minutes with Crowder playing over a half of action on Saturday, and he turned in a team-high 23 points. Specifically here, we're looking at his ability to score from deep.

At 47.2% implied odds, it seems reasonable that Bridges can bang a couple of triples tonight. Bridges averages 2.11 three-point makes per 36 minutes with Ayton and Crowder off the floor this season.

Notably, Bridges scores 37.5% of his points from outside in that floor condition. While numberFire's projections don't include three-point makes specifically, that percentage applied to his 12.1 projected median for points would result in an implied 1.54 three-pointers.

Bridges is averaging 4.8 attempts per game this month from deep, so with extended minutes and plus-money odds behind this prop, it seems like a reasonable place to target.

Josh Giddey Over 6.5 Assists (+118)

Josh Giddey may be bound for some regression in the assist column.

The Thunder starters have been healthy for quite a while, but Giddey has taken a random downward trend in terms of assists. He's failed to eclipse three dimes in four of his last five games. That's come on the heels of a stretch where he posted at least five in nine straight contests.

His usage in January overall (21.3%) is relatively unchanged from his usage on the entire season (21.8%), so his role hasn't really changed. Giddey is still the primary setup man in the offense, as well. OKC averages 3.98 more assists per 100 possessions with him on the floor than without.

These odds -- likely due to his recent cold stretch -- carry just a 45.9% implied probability Giddey reaches seven assists tonight.

Chicago is midpack in assists per game allowed (24.2) and defensive rating (109.7), so in a fairly neutral matchup, I'll buy into the notion Giddey regresses closer to his 7.16 assists per 36 minutes this season.

Jonas Valanciunas Under 13.5 Rebounds (+100)

This one will be nerve-racking given the opponent, but all metrics point toward taking the under on Jonas Valanciunas' rebounding prop tonight.

Indiana is without Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis tonight, and the Pacers have just a 67.6% defensive rebounding percentage this season with both off the floor. That would be last in the league by over six percentage points, though, so favorable regression is likely headed the Pacers' way once they begin to adjust for missing their top bigs.

Even with that factored in, numberFire still projects Valanciunas for just 12.9 rebounds tonight in 31.9 minutes. It's likely due to the fact that he actually drops in rebounding pace when Brandon Ingram is off the floor for the Pelicans. Valanciunas sees a reduction of 1.36 rebounds per 36 minutes with B.I. off the floor this season.

Given he sees an increase in usage without Ingram (4.5 percentage points; highest on the Pels), it makes intuitive sense. He's using more energy at the offensive end.

Valanciunus has only exceeded 13 boards in three of his nine contests since returning from illness on December 28th. Given the negative rebounding trend with Ingram as well, I'm still comfortable with exactly 50% implied odds he stays under this lofty total despite a soft matchup.