3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/14/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jalen Green Over 14.5 Points (-114)
A lot of the player props have been boosted accordingly -- it's almost like oddsmakers are smart. But, Jalen Green's points prop is an exception.
After missing a lot of time, Green is back and rounding into form. He's played in nine straight games and has averaged 29.6 minutes and 17.0 points in that span while leading the Rockets with a 24.6% usage rate.
Green can feast in this track meet, and our algorithm forecasts the rookie to total 16.7 points. That's 2.2 over this line, making it a great prop to attack.
Gary Harris Under 2.5 Rebounds (-115)
Gary Harris is getting big minutes for the Orlando Magic, seeing at least 30 minutes in 16 straight games. Admittedly, it's scary to bet on someone who will be on the court that much to snag two or fewer boards, but that's what the numbers point to.
Over his last five games, Harris has pulled down three-plus boards just once. He's got two games of no rebounds in that span and another with one. For the year, he's averaging 2.3 boards per night.
We project Harris for 2.4 rebounds tonight.
Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+118)
Because nothing is ever that straightforward, Young has been in a funk of late, making just 3 of 19 three-point tries over his last three games, including a 1-for-6 effort from deep against these same Heat last time out.
But Young has a long track record of being a better shooter than that, and the volume should be there as he's hoisted at least six three-point attempts in 13 straight games.
Our model projects Young to make 2.5 threes. That's dead on this line, but given the prices on the over (+118) and under (-150), I'll take my chances with the over.