3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/12/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
LaMelo Ball Over 6.5 Assists (-102)
The diciest player props to target are the wild ones, and LaMelo Ball's assist prop is always that.
In just his six three games, he's exceeded eight assists three times and fallen short of four assists three times. I'm glad it's not my job to assign this prop a value.
At this current mark, though, Ball is given a 50.5% implied probability to dish seven or more assists tonight. I'll take the over at that rate.
Ball is projected for 7.4 assists in numberFire's model, which was somewhat of a shock given this pace-down spot for his Hornets. That's fair, though, given his 8.58 assists per 36 minutes rate for the entire season, and Charlotte is even missing Kelly Oubre in COVID-19 protocols.
The lone concern I have for Ball's potential to reach seven dimes? His coach. Ball's been inexplicably held under 30 minutes in four of his last seven games as Charlotte's best player. He dished at least seven assists in three of those despite the reduced playing time, though.
Christian Wood Over 1.5 Three-Point Makes (+130)
+130 odds on a prop bet that could realistically hit in the first quarter? I'm in.
Two triples in the first stanza would be a stellar start for Christian Wood, but this mark is certainly good value given its implied 43.5% odds to hit. There's a 232.0-point total for the Rockets and Spurs' contest in San Antonio tonight, and Wood, who's accounted for 14.8% of Houston's total points this year, should have a solid hand in that.
Wood attempts 4.7 three-point shots per game, and this season's he's made 1.6. That 34.1% mark was at least 37.8% each of the last two seasons for C-Wood, so some positive regression should be on the horizon.
The biggest issue with betting Wood's props this year has been the competitiveness of his team. He's averaging just 30.8 minutes per game in a full-time role because of how often Houston gets blown off the floor. With just a 5.5-point spread against San Antonio, he can hopefully see his full share of court time.
With a full workload, Wood should be in the vicinity of this prop he's exceeded in 19 of the 35 games he's played this season with at least 30 minutes of court time.
Robert Williams Over 9.5 Rebounds (-114)
I try not to pick three "overs", but the top three lines of the day just happened to fall on that side.
Robert Williams is tasked with scoring double-digit rebounds to exceed his projected total on FanDuel Sportsbook -- a feat he's achieved in 15 of his 32 games this season. He's been on a binge lately as well, posting double-digit boards in 7 of his last 11 contests.
numberFire's model has Williams posted at 10.1 rebounds as a median projection despite a tough matchup with Indiana. The reason why? The Celtics will be missing Marcus Smart due to a thigh injury, and Williams averages 11.03 rebounds per 36 minutes with the solid rebounder at guard off the floor.
Williams has wrestled Al Horford for playing time all season, but he's won the most recent battles. He's posted at least 32 minutes in five straight games. There's no doubt he'll be on the court plenty given that the Pacers have one of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner on the court at nearly all times.