NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 1/10/22

Indiana's pair of big men have funneled more boards to opposing backcourts. Does that mean there's value on Marcus Smart's rebounding prop tonight?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 Points (-110)

The Spurs are down players due to COVID-19 protocols, and that's meant a much more secure role for Jakob Poeltl.

Poeltl has played at least 30 minutes in San Antonio's last two contests without Keldon Johnson, and Johnson's absence is pretty substantive for Poeltl's scoring production. Poeltl averages 15.97 points per 36 minutes with Johnson off the floor this season.

The big man has been in the vicinity of his prop with consistency recently. He's scored at least 10 points in eight of his last nine games. That's been despite seeing less than 30 minutes in five of those same nine games. With just 8 and 11 points in the two contests without Johnson since Friday, he hasn't broken this mark yet in this current lineup configuration, but it's coming.

The Knicks' overall defensive rating (109.7; tied for 10th-worst in the NBA) isn't menacing, so quality floor time for Poeltl could lead to a healthy double-double in his new role. numberFire has his median projection at 11.5 points on the dot, but I'll wager for at least 12 at even -110 odds.

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 Assists (+114)

Tobias Harris let me down last week in Orlando at this same mark, but it appears that was the exception, not the rule.

Harris posted four assists in that contest, which was the only time in his last five games he's fallen short of five assists. The reason is obvious -- the absence of Tyrese Maxey in COVID-19 protocols.

Harris and Seth Curry have a timeshare as Philadelphia's floor general in that situation. Harris averages 4.98 assists per 36 minutes in that floor condition, and Curry averages 4.80.

The only concern for Harris would be limited minutes due to a blowout with a 12.0-point spread. Still, with the Rockets both the top overall team in pace (103.2) and the bottom overall team in defensive rating, it's not out of the realm of possibility Harris wraps up his night with five-plus assists in three periods of work.

At implied 46.7% probability reflected by +114 odds, Harris' recent trend seems better than a 50-50 proposition.

Marcus Smart Over 3.5 Rebounds (+104)

Ever since he was drafted, one of Marcus Smart's plus abilities has been considered his ability to rebound as a guard.

Even with Indiana a good team on the boards (11th in estimated rebounding), Smart's prop at 3.5 rebounds on Monday was one that just jumped off the scroll of FanDuel Sportsbook.

This season, Smart is averaging 4.13 rebounds per 36 minutes. It's come through some pretty turbulent production recently. Since December 1st, he's posted two or fewer rebounds eight times, but he's also posted five-plus rebounds in eight contests as well.

Bizarrely, the Pacers have allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game (7.06) to point guards. Indiana has two strong rebounding bigs (Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner), so it makes sense that, through box-outs, more boards are funneled to the backcourt.

The plus-money odds here oddsmakers believe it's more likely Smart snags three or fewer boards than four-plus. Count me as a vote in the other direction.