NBA Betting Guide for Friday 1/7/22: Listening to the Data for 3 Over/Unders
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers
These two teams have been playing pretty over-friendly basketball of late.
In the San Antonio Spurs' past 10 games, the over is 6-4 (with an average over of +5.4). They themselves have gone over their implied team total in just 4 of the 10 but have actually gone over by an average of +6.9 despite that. They've had narrow misses combined with games of dominating their implied total.
Overs in the Philadelphia 76ers' past 10 are 6-4. They are 5-4-1 on besting their own implied team totals, and they've allowed opponents to surpass their implied total in 7 of the past 10.
numberFire's model loves the over (217.5), rating it as a four-star suggestion. That means it suggests a four-unit wager. The odds of this game going over, per our model, are 70.0%.
Adjusting for injury news, my model views the over as 60.1% likely as well.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
The over (218.0) is getting love in this game as well.
numberFire's model views the over as a three-star play and sees it as 63.5% likely to hit.
Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder playing to an over record of 3-7 in their past 10 games, they've gone over their own implied total in 7 of the 10 games. Opponents just haven't poured on the points.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, though, have gone over their own implied total in 6 of their past 10.
The algo also likes the Thunder to keep it close at home.
Oklahoma City's spread (+6.0) and their moneyline (+194) are one-star suggestions. Over the past 10 games, the Thunder have a spread-adjusted point differential of +7.3; the Timberwolves are at +4.1.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
While the Denver Nuggets haven't been great all season (18-18) or over the past 10 games (5-5), the Sacramento Kings haven't been either (16-24 on the season and 4-6 over their past 10 games).
Our algorithm at numberFire likes the Nuggets (-8.0) to cover with a 52.3% probability. My model sees the spread as 9.5 points in Denver's favor.
They're listed at -330 on the moneyline, and that's actually the better bet, per our model at numberFire. It's an 81.2% chance that they pick up the victory and get back over .500. The expected return there is 5.9%; at the heavy odds, it's a safe, bankroll-building bet.
Though numberFire's model doesn't have a pick for the total, my model -- adjusting for injuries here -- sees the under (225.5) hitting at a nice 67.7% probability.
