NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 12/31/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Dec 31st, 2021

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Pace Opp
Pace
LAL POR 229.5 -6.0 117.75 100.9 98.0
UTAH MIN 222.5 -10.5 116.50 98.8 99.1
MEM SA 224.0 -6.0 115.00 98.8 100.3
CHI IND 222.0 -5.0 113.50 98.4 96.9
POR LAL 229.5 +6.0 111.75 98.0 100.9
MIA HOU 216.5 -3.5 110.00 95.5 100.2
PHX BOS 214.5 -4.5 109.50 99.9 97.1
DAL SAC 217.5 -1.0 109.25 95.8 100.0
SA MEM 224.0 +6.0 109.00 100.3 98.8
IND CHI 222.0 +5.0 108.50 96.9 98.4
CLE ATL 215.5 -1.0 108.25 97.5 97.4
SAC DAL 217.5 +1.0 108.25 100.0 95.8
TOR LAC 209.5 -6.5 108.00 96.1 98.6
ATL CLE 215.5 +1.0 107.25 97.4 97.5
HOU MIA 216.5 +3.5 106.50 100.2 95.5
MIN UTAH 222.5 +10.5 106.00 99.1 98.8
NY OKC 205.5 -5.5 105.50 95.8 98.5
BOS PHX 214.5 +4.5 105.00 97.1 99.9
LAC TOR 209.5 +6.5 101.50 98.6 96.1
OKC NY 205.5 +5.5 100.00 98.5 95.8

Guards

On this seven-game slate, we have plenty of stud-level guards to pick from, but the one who stands out most, in my model, is Damian Lillard ($9,100) against the Los Angeles Lakers. Lillard projects for the top salary-adjusted value in my model and also holds the peak ceiling projection (61.7) in my sims. He's 26.6% likely to lead all guard-eligible plays in FanDuel points.

Other guards are close, and they rank as follows: Trae Young ($9,700; 17.8%), Ja Morant ($9,300; 14.4%), Russell Westbrook ($9,800; 11.1%). While not rating out as well in terms of peak production, both Donovan Mitchell ($8,600 and Derrick White ($8,000) rate as strong values for more digestible salaries. We might need that to prioritize someone else at forward. More on that in a second.

While we do have plenty of value opportunities at guard, we have to weigh the opportunity cost of missing out on bigger ceilings from the studs on the slate.

That being said, the best value in my model is Skylar Mays ($4,000) against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Mays is slated for 29.0 minutes tonight, per numberFire's model, with an output of 23.5 FanDuel points. In two of his past four games, he has surpassed 30 minutes played and produced 33.7 and 15.1 FanDuel points in them. Splitting the difference still puts him in range of the projection for tonight and above the expected value we need from him at the salary. Mays ranks as 14.6% likely to post the best value rating (FanDuel points per $1,000) across my slate simulations among guards). Chaundee Brown ($3,800; 11.2%) is also in play for the Atlanta Hawks.

Other low-salary options to monitor include Kevin Pangos ($3,900), Kyle Guy ($3,500), Devin Vassell ($4,500), Tyus Jones ($3,800), and Dennis Smith ($3,800).

Forwards

Is LeBron James ($11,200) worth a lofty salary? Yeah, he is. Among all forward options, there are two massive standouts: James and Jimmy Butler ($9,000). Butler is listed as questionable, for what it's worth. My simulations see James finishing with the most FanDuel points among forward players at a stellar 46.9% clip. Butler is at 25.6%.

A ceiling game from James (68.0 FanDuel points is his reasonable ceiling in my sims) would be virtually impossible to replace with value picks at forward aside from Butler. We have more value and depth at guard than we do at forward, and we have a true superstar at forward, so James gets top priority tonight across all players.

After James and Butler, we can look to the mid-range here with Tyler Herro ($6,700), Norman Powell ($6,100), and Larry Nance Jr. ($6,100). They all outperform value expectations across my slate simulations.

The player most likely to lead forwards in value rating is Joe Ingles ($4,200; 9.6%), a pretty low number. So while we have some value options, none shape up as must-play types.

Ingles, Kyle Anderson ($4,900), Lauri Markkanen ($5,400), Isaac Okoro ($4,400), and Cam Reddish ($5,400) should be viewed as the top salary-saving options among forwards.

Bigs

With just Rudy Gobert ($9,100), Pascal Siakam ($8,300), and Clint Capela ($8,000) boasting salaries of at least $8,000, we'll naturally be saving salary with our bigs. That helps, and we can like all three of them well enough, yet none stand out as core plays relative to their salaries.

That applies more with mid-to-low-salary options in Evan Mobley ($7,000), Omer Yurtseven ($6,100), Jakob Poeltl ($6,000), and Serge Ibaka ($4,000). Ibaka rates as 21.2% likely to lead all bigs in value rating, making him one of two players with a double-digit chance to do so (Yurtseven is at 11.0% himself).

While trying to get to LeBron James in our lineups, this list of names will really help, and by building around the Lillard, Trae, Morant, etc. tier at guard with LeBron, we can take savings with the bigs. Put another way: the range-of-outcomes here tell us to be building around James and the guards rather than the bigs.

Other strong value plays among the PF/C positions include Isaiah Roby ($3,900), Steven Adams ($4,800), Jock Landale ($3,900), and Obi Toppin ($4,300).