NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 12/27/21

Absences for the Timberwolves should lead to a big value opportunity for Nathan Knight. Who else can we build around on FanDuel?

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Pace Opp
Pace
CHA HOU 235.5 -6.5 121.00 100.4 100.2
UTAH SA 230.5 -7.0 118.75 98.7 100.1
PHX MEM 221.0 -8.5 114.75 100.1 98.9
HOU CHA 235.5 +6.5 114.50 100.2 100.4
BOS MIN 216.0 -8.5 112.25 97.3 99.3
SA UTAH 230.5 +7.0 111.75 100.1 98.7
BKN LAC 215.5 -4.0 109.75 99.5 98.7
CHI ATL 208.0 -5.5 106.75 98.3 97.2
DAL POR 212.5 -1.0 106.75 95.9 98.0
MEM PHX 221.0 +8.5 106.25 98.9 100.1
LAC BKN 215.5 +4.0 105.75 98.7 99.5
POR DAL 212.5 +1.0 105.75 98.0 95.9
MIN BOS 216.0 +8.5 103.75 99.3 97.3
ATL CHI 208.0 +5.5 101.25 97.2 98.3

Guards

James Harden ($11,000) headlines the broader guard position as one of three players with a salary of at least $9,000.

My slate simulation model sees him leading all guards in FanDuel points at a stellar 44.0% clip and finishing top five at an 81.2% probability against the Los Angeles Clippers. numberFire projects Harden for 38.6 minutes and 56.5 FanDuel points, making it hard to get away from Harden among the studs.

LaMelo Ball ($9,400) and Damian Lillard ($9,000) are 11.7% and 16.6%, respectively, to lead all guards in FanDuel scoring for context. There's a drop-off after the top three tonight for sure when it comes to high-end output.

Value definitely exists, though, among guards.

John Konchar is my top adjusted salary play and is 15.2% likely to net the best FanDuel value rating (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) on the slate at the position. Konchar played 28.1 minutes in a start yesterday. He posted a line of 11 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks on a weak 12.2% usage rate.

Other standout salary-savers include Eric Bledsoe ($5,500), Jordan Clarkson ($5,200), Anfernee Simons ($4,000), Skylar Mays ($4,300), Patrick Beverley ($5,800), Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,000), and Marcus Smart ($5,900).

That's a pretty lengthy list. That does call into question the opportunity cost of Harden, Ball, and Lillard, but don't forget about their ceilings just to save salary for your guards.

More on that as we transition into the rest of the slate.

Forwards

We don't have a Harden-level play among forward picks.

Jaylen Brown ($8,000) and DeMar DeRozan ($8,900) rate as 23.1% and 16.8%, respectively, to lead forwards in FanDuel points across my simulated slates. It's just a flatter position than we have at guard (or big).

Also, no value play is better than 9.0% likely to be the leader in FanDuel value (that's Cam Reddish [$5,300] at 9.0%).

So, yes, guard has a lot of viable plays in the low salary range; however, the true upside is less prevalent at forward, which makes Harden an even stronger building block.

With plenty of value at forward -- my model sees the best values as Reddish, Malik Beasley ($6,000), Norman Powell ($6,100), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,800), and Joe Ingles ($4,200) -- we can save here and risk less in terms of true, raw FanDuel point upside.

Bigs

We'll probably want to use some guard savings and a lot of forward savings to spend up at the big position as a primary play.

That starts with true centers (i.e. center-only options) Clint Capela ($8,000), Rudy Gobert ($9,100), Jakob Poeltl ($7,200), and Nikola Vucevic ($8,300). There's some flexibility with a PF/C play in Christian Wood ($7,900) at the high end, as well.

My model's top value is pretty easily Nathan Knight ($3,800). Knight, just a PF-eligible play, is projected for 28.0 minutes and 27.9 FanDuel points while the Minnesota Timberwolves are thin. Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards are out. Knight is 30.5% likely to post the best value rating among all big-eligible players and is 59.6% likely to finish top five among them in value. We also can pair him with one of the aforementioned studs at center due to his position.

Mason Plumlee ($4,600) and Gorgui Dieng ($3,900) also rate out as elite value plays for the lineups where we want to build around Harden plus any of Ball, Lillard, DeRozan, and Brown.

Range-of-Outcome Projections

I calculated each player's projected floor (Low) and ceiling (High) (i.e.one standard deviation above and below his fantasy projection) for the slate, based on numberFire's median projections. The position groups are guard (G), forward (F), and big (B) in the table.

Player Pos Pos
$ Min FDP Low High FDP
Pos
Rk
James
Harden
SG/PGG $11K 38.656.442.969.81
Damian
Lillard
PGG $9K 38.546.734.359.02
LaMelo
Ball
PGG $9.4K 33.443.831.855.83
Rudy
Gobert
CB $9.1K 33.343.831.855.81
Kristaps
Porzingis
PF/CB $8.9K 31.841.529.753.22
Clint
Capela
CB $8K 33.040.829.252.53
Christian
Wood
PF/CB $7.9K 31.940.128.551.64
DeMar
DeRozan
SG/SFF $8.9K 33.940.128.551.61
Jaylen
Brown
SF/SGF $8K 33.839.628.151.12
Nikola
Vucevic
CB $8.3K 33.939.427.950.85
Zach
LaVine
SG/PGG $8.6K 34.538.326.949.64
Ja
Morant
PGG $8.7K 32.737.726.449.05
Devin
Booker
SGG $7.4K 34.837.326.148.56
Jalen
Brunson
PG/SGG $7.6K 34.837.025.848.27
Chris
Paul
PGG $8.2K 31.836.825.748.08
Derrick
White
PGG $7.7K 34.536.625.547.89
Jakob
Poeltl
CB $7.2K 30.735.224.246.16
Deandre
Ayton
CB $8.1K 31.834.823.945.77
Jaren
Jackson
Jr.
PF/CB $6.7K 30.334.723.845.68
Malik
Beasley
SF/SGF $6K 35.033.522.844.33
Norman
Powell
SF/SGF $6.1K 39.533.422.744.14
Gordon
Hayward
SF/SGF $7.3K 32.633.122.443.85
Al
Horford
PF/CB $7K 29.532.922.243.69
Larry
Nance
Jr.
PF/SFF $5.7K 36.532.722.043.36
Kevin
Porter
Jr.
SF/PGF $6.6K 32.131.921.442.57
Terry
Rozier
SG/PGG $6.4K 30.431.821.342.410
Robert
Williams
PF/CB $6.1K 27.531.721.142.210
Mike
Conley
PGG $6.2K 30.231.521.042.011
Kelly
Oubre
SF/SGF $6.3K 32.631.120.641.58
Bogdan
Bogdanovic
SF/SGF $5.8K 36.130.820.441.39
Marcus
Smart
SG/PGG $5.9K 33.830.720.341.112
Keldon
Johnson
PF/SFF $6.3K 32.630.319.940.610
Kyle
Anderson
SF/PFF $5.4K 27.829.919.640.211
Mason
Plumlee
CB $4.6K 27.029.319.039.511
Eric
Bledsoe
SG/PGG $5.5K 32.129.018.839.213
Brandon
Clarke
PFB $4.6K 27.828.718.538.912
Desmond
Bane
SGG $6.5K 32.528.718.538.914
Patrick
Mills
SG/PGG $6.9K 35.828.718.538.815
Jordan
Clarkson
PG/SGG $5.2K 28.228.518.338.616
Patrick
Beverley
PGG $5.8K 29.028.118.038.217
Nathan
Knight
PFB $3.8K 28.028.017.938.113
Jaden
McDaniels
PFB $5.4K 37.027.917.838.014
Nassir
Little
SFF $5.7K 33.427.317.337.312
Bojan
Bogdanovic
SF/PFF $5.6K 32.327.317.237.313
Luke
Kennard
SG/SFF $5.1K 30.127.017.137.014
Terance
Mann
SG/SFF $5.6K 32.126.917.036.915
Nicolas
Claxton
C/PFB $6.2K 31.226.917.036.915
Alperen
Sengun
C/PFB $5.4K 22.026.916.936.916
Cam
Reddish
SG/SFF $5.3K 36.126.716.736.616
Bruce
Brown
Jr.
SGG $5K 30.226.516.636.418
Marcus
Morris
PF/SFF $6K 30.126.416.536.317
John
Konchar
SGG $3.7K 30.026.116.236.019
Skylar
Mays
SGG $4.3K 32.026.116.236.020
Jalen
McDaniels
PFB $4.5K 30.125.715.935.517
Mikal
Bridges
SF/PFF $5.3K 34.825.715.835.518
Jae'Sean
Tate
SF/PFF $5.8K 27.025.615.835.419
Joe
Ingles
SG/SFF $4.2K 30.225.615.835.420
Gorgui
Dieng
CB $3.9K 25.025.515.735.318
Jalen
Green
SG/PGG $5.6K 32.125.215.434.921
Ivica
Zubac
CB $5.3K 27.825.015.334.719
Coby
White
PG/SGG $5.7K 29.924.915.234.722
Steven
Adams
CB $4.8K 26.824.715.034.420
Frank
Ntilikina
PGG $5.2K 32.524.314.734.023
Dorian
Finney-Smith
SF/SGF $6.2K 35.724.014.433.621
Eric
Gordon
SF/SGF $5.5K 29.423.814.233.422
Cameron
Johnson
SFF $5.3K 30.923.614.033.223
Nicolas
Batum
SF/PFF $4.4K 26.822.813.332.324
Sterling
Brown
SGG $4.5K 27.922.813.332.224
Anfernee
Simons
PG/SGG $4K 29.422.713.332.225
Devin
Vassell
SGG $4.8K 25.722.713.232.226
JaVale
McGee
CB $4.5K 17.922.613.132.021
Royce
O'Neale
SF/PFF $4.5K 31.322.312.931.825
James
Johnson
SF/PFF $4.9K 25.221.512.230.926
Serge
Ibaka
PF/CB $4K 19.121.312.030.622
Rudy
Gay
PF/SFF $3.8K 21.220.911.730.227
Kenyon
Martin
Jr.
SF/PFF $5.1K 22.020.611.429.828
Romeo
Langford
SGG $4K 32.520.511.329.727
Brandon
Boston
Jr.
SGG $3.8K 24.019.910.829.028
Grant
Williams
PFB $4.5K 28.519.710.628.723
Lonnie
Walker
SG/SFF $5.3K 23.719.610.528.729
Jock
Landale
CB $4.1K 16.819.410.328.424
Jake
Layman
SF/PFF $4.6K 24.019.210.228.330
Lance
Stephenson
SFF $3.7K 23.019.110.128.131
Tyus
Jones
PGG $4.2K 19.819.010.028.029
Jordan
McLaughlin
PGG $3.6K 20.018.69.727.630
Cameron
Payne
PG/SGG $5.4K 17.818.69.627.531
Doug
McDermott
PF/SFF $4.2K 25.718.59.627.532
Greg
Brown
SGG $3.5K 18.118.49.527.432
Tre
Jones
PGG $3.6K 19.817.99.026.833
Payton
Pritchard
PG/SGG $4.9K 22.417.99.026.834
Dwight
Powell
C/PFB $4.5K 19.917.78.826.625
Jaylen
Nowell
PGG $4K 18.017.58.726.435
Jalen
Smith
PF/CB $3.5K 18.117.28.426.026
DeAndre
Bembry
SG/SFF $4.5K 22.217.08.225.833
JT
Thor
PFB $3.5K 19.016.77.925.427
Javonte
Green
SG/SFF $4.1K 25.816.57.725.234
Josh
Christopher
SGG $4.1K 18.015.97.324.636
Landry
Shamet
SGG $3.7K 22.015.67.024.237
Armoni
Brooks
SGG $4.5K 18.015.46.824.038
Tony
Snell
SF/SGF $3.6K 26.315.06.523.535
Jabari
Parker
PFB $3.9K 16.314.96.423.428
C.J.
Elleby
SFF $3.5K 18.214.25.722.636
Keita
Bates-Diop
SFF $4.8K 16.814.15.722.637
Josh
Okogie
SF/SGF $3.5K 19.014.05.622.438
Ayo
Dosunmu
SGG $3.8K 23.913.95.522.339
Hassan
Whiteside
CB $5.1K 11.113.85.422.229
Malcolm
Hill
SFF $3.5K 15.013.75.322.139
Josh
Green
SGG $4.1K 17.913.14.821.440
Amir
Coffey
PFB $4.3K 17.912.94.721.230
Brandon
Knight
PGG $4.4K 14.912.94.621.141
Juan
Hernangomez
SF/PFF $3.8K 15.312.64.420.940
Troy
Brown
SGG $3.5K 19.912.03.820.242
Ish
Smith
PG/SGG $4K 12.811.83.619.943
Nick
Richards
CB $3.7K 12.011.73.519.831
Theo
Pinson
SG/SFF $4.6K 13.911.73.519.841
Shaquille
Harrison
PG/SGG $3.6K 16.111.53.419.644
Xavier
Tillman
PFB $4.3K 12.011.33.219.432
Moses
Brown
CB $3.6K 10.011.33.219.433
Blake
Griffin
PF/CB $5.5K 12.110.92.818.934
Derrick
Jones
Jr.
SG/SFF $4.1K 15.210.52.518.542
Bryn
Forbes
SGG $3.8K 12.99.91.917.845
Paul
Millsap
PF/CB $3.5K 10.19.81.917.735
Jevon
Carter
PG/SGG $3.6K 12.19.21.417.046
James
Bouknight
SGG $3.5K 10.09.01.216.847
Cat
Barber
PGG $3.5K 10.08.50.716.248
Malik
Ellison
SGG $3.5K 10.08.50.716.248
Matt
Thomas
SGG $3.5K 14.28.40.716.250
Miye
Oni
SGG $3.5K 12.17.80.115.451
Leandro
Bolmaro
SFF $3.5K 10.07.50.015.143
Trevelin
Queen
PGG $3.5K 7.37.50.015.152
Trent
Forrest
SGG $3.5K 10.17.40.015.153
Tyler
Cook
PFB $3.6K 8.04.80.012.236
James
Ennis
SFF $3.6K 6.14.50.011.844