NBA Betting Guide for Saturday 12/25/21: What Can We Bet on Christmas Day?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks

This game marks the second matchup of the season between these two teams.

The New York Knicks beat the Atlanta Hawks 99-90 in Atlanta on November 27th despite the Hawks being favored by 7.0 points. Their moneyline was -340.

Atlanta shot just 35.5% from the field with a 24.3% three-point field goal percentage in that game. Via PBPStats, they obtained a shot quality rating of 55.0% (or expected effective field goal percentage based on shot location and defense) but shot just 40.3%, so they really (read: really) underperformed.

The Knicks were 43.9% from the field and 37.9% from deep in that game for an effective field goal percentage of 50.6% on a shot quality of 55.0%.

Their non-garbage-time net rating even with Trae Young off the floor is a viable -1.5.

numberFire's model sees the Hawks (+6.0) as a three-unit recommendation with their moneyline (+194) as a two-star play.

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

We've seen two games so far this season between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, games that have led to two wins for the Celtics at home.

The first win was a 122-113 overtime victory on November 12th while Giannis Antetokounmpo missed. They dominated the rebound battle 53-39. Boston followed up that game with a 117-103 win, on the back of Jayson Tatum's 42-point night and a three-point percentage differential of 42.6% to 30.6%.

With that second game being more indicative (with Giannis active), it's worth noting that the Bucks had a shot quality of 51.0% with an effective field goal percentage of 50.6%. The Celtics shot a blistering 61.6% effective field goal rate despite the same shot quality rating (51.0%).

With homecourt back in their favor, the Bucks set up well.

numberFire's model likes their spread (-3.0) as a two-star play and their moneyline (-148) as a full four-star play.

The over (219.0) is rating as a three-star suggestion. Their games so far on the season are 1-1 on the over but went over by 25 and fell short by just 2.5.

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

Although the records for these two teams (26-6 for the Golden State Warriors and 26-5 for the Phoenix Suns) might suggest close games when they meet, neither of their two matchups have been particularly tight.

The Suns won the first matchup 104-96, and the Warriors bounced back with a home win of their own by a score of 118-96.

Through these two games, the Suns have posted a pretty terrible non-garbage-time shot quality rating of 47.0% and an effective field goal percentage of 48.4%. The Warriors' rates are 49.0% and 52.4%, respectively.

numberFire's model has a lean on the road team in the series for a change. It views the Warriors' moneyline (+198) as a one-unit play and their spread (+6.0) as a two-unit play.

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers

This game is super tight. The Brooklyn Nets are 1.0-point road favorites, and the moneyline is -108 on either side. Doesn't get much tighter than that.

Also, numberFire's model is returning no pick action on either the over/under, the spread, or the moneyline. With four other games, we have better options.

But in spirit of this betting guide, we can at least dig a little deeper.

These teams have not met this season and will play just once more (on January 25th), so we have no matchup data to dig into.

However, the teams are trending in opposite directions. The Lakers have lost four straight, and the Nets are 4-1 in their past five games.

Over the past 10 games, the Nets have a spread-adjusted point differential of -0.9; the Lakers' mark is -5.1.

Even with homecourt advantage factored in, we should probably lean with the Nets, but this really is a stay-away by all indications.

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

Christmas Day's slate of games could go from tight game in Los Angeles to rout in Utah.

The Utah Jazz are favored by 12.5 points over the depleted Dallas Mavericks, who have played their past six games without Luka Doncic. In that sample, they are actually 3-3 with a point differential of +6.5. Was it all just against weak teams? No. Their spread-adjusted point differential is +7.0 due to beating the weak teams and keeping it fairly tight against the better squads.

This is the first matchup of the season between Utah and Dallas.

Since 2016, home teams favored by 10.0 to 15.0 points have won outright at an 84.2% rate (similar to where our model has Utah [81.2%]) but have covered in just 47.3%.

numberFire's model likes the Mavericks +12.5 as a two-unit suggestion and does think you can throw a unit on the Mavericks' moneyline (+560). Though the odds of a Mavericks win is only 18.8%, the expected return at those odds is 23.8% long-term.