3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 12/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Grayson Allen Over 12.5 Points (-116)
Patience throughout the day on all three of these overs should be rewarded. It's more than worth waiting to see if the line moves to get better juice on the odds.
The first line that stood out is with Grayson Allen for the Bucks. Allen should be a more central focal point of the offense with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donte DiVincenzo out due to COVID-19 protocols. Khris Middleton (hyperextended knee) is likely to join them.
Assuming Allen does see 30-plus minutes of action, this point line is just too low. Allen is averaging 15.91 points per 36 minutes this season in a vacuum, and it only drops to 14.90 during floor situations without Giannis, who makes space for his shooters.
Middleton might be the more impactful absence for Allen. Grayson took double-digit shot attempts in 13 of 14 games to start the year with Middleton sidelined or largely limited. That type of shot volume for a 41.4% three-point shooter can pay dividends quickly on a line this low.
P.J. Tucker Over 17.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)
Consider 2021 the breakout year for veteran and NBA champion, P.J. Tucker.
Tucker's opportunity in Miami this year has been larger than expected with the usually-reliable Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both suffering freak injuries. As a result, Tucker is the most-deployed member of the Miami frontcourt that is currently active (28.1 minutes per game).
Without Miami's star duo on the floor this season, Tucker averages 11.70 points, 7.29 rebounds, and 3.49 assists per 36 minutes. That's approximately the court time he'll see on Wednesday, so this was by far the most shocking available prop on the board.
The Heat ultimately don't deploy Dewayne Dedmon and Omer Yurtseven for long stretches, and that has led to at least 31 minutes in Miami's last five games decided by less than 20 points. With the proper court time, their de facto center should pile in stats.
Armoni Brooks Over 15.5 Points and Assists (-120)
The board for "unders" is just not particularly appealing with so much injury and COVID-19 news across the league.
The -120 juice is a lot to lay currently, so I'd love to see this particular line move to 16.5 to get some of the cost back. If Armoni Brooks gets the role he's likely to with Eric Gordon out due to injury due to injury, he's in a tremendous spot.
Brooks already started alongside Gordon on Monday, but a red-hot performance off the bench from D.J. Augustin saddled him to the bench late. Potentially with Gordon out, Brooks' role is safer.
The magic number for Brooks tonight is 29 minutes. In all five games this season, he's seen that starter-like minutes load, he's posted no lower than 18 points plus assists. He averages 18.61 points plus assists per 36 minutes on the season as a whole.
It's a dangerous game to assume an NBA coach will do the correct thing, but Brooks is one of the Rockets' best offensive options with Gordon, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, and Christian Wood all potentially sidelined on Wednesday.
Thankfully, the shorthanded circumstances may give Stephen Silas no other choice than to give Brooks a full-time schedule, and if he gets one, he's a great bet at this number.