NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/8/21: Take the Points on These 3 Teams

Underdogs are the theme for tonight's slate, according to numberFire's model. Which three teams can we hone in on?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons

These teams haven't had much to get excited about in recent games. Combined, they are 1-9 over their past 10 games, and the Detroit Pistons are 1-9 themselves. The Washington Wizards are 4-6.

Notably, though, the Wizards have a spread-adjusted point differential of -7.6 across their past 10 games, the third-worst number in the NBA. The Pistons are close to expectation at -0.8 over their past 10 games.

While my model -- using relevant samples that feature a -4.3 net rating for the Wizards and a -11.0 net rating for the Pistons -- sees a big talent gap here, these two teams play slowly (they're both bottom-six in pace over the past 10 games). That narrows the gap and suggests a 2.5-point spread in favor of the Wizards.

The actual spread is 5.5. So we can justify taking the points with the Pistons.

numberFire's model sees Detroit covering that spread at a 60.8% rate, making it a two-star recommendation. Our algorithm here also likes the Pistons' moneyline (+184) to hit 42.1% of the time. That's another two-unit suggestion.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

The model is going nuts for the Miami Heat to cover a 6.5-point spread against the Milwaukee Bucks. Their moneyline (+210) is a four-star suggestion, as well.

The Heat list Jimmy Butler and Markieff Morris as out, so is there enough here to trust the model?

The Bucks actually have some strange splits without George Hill, who has been one of their best players by net rating, so that's a key factor here.

As for the Heat, in four games without Butler, Morris, and Bam Adebayo, they are a respectable 2-2 with a non-garbage net rating of -5.4. All in, then, my model anticipates them to be 3.0-point underdogs at home.

numberFire's model sees the Heat covering at a 71.9% probability; my model has their cover odds at 66.4%.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

The spread is just a modest +14.5 for the depleted Portland Trail Blazers tonight on the road against the elite Golden State Warriors.

Both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are out.

Even with the injuries, our model thinks the spread is just a bit too high. The projected score in this one is 121.2 to 112.6, so a gap of 8.6 points in favor of the Warriors at home.

My model sees the spread as a bit larger: 11.5 for the Dubs at home.

The Blazers have been terrible on the road (1-10), but even with that, the data says they can keep it within 14 points tonight.