NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/1/21: Our Model Loves Some Moneylines

Which favorites have enough win juice to be betting values on tonight's slate of NBA games?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Though the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics feature identical 11-10 records this season, they are trending in different directions.

Over their past 10 games, the Celtics are 6-4 with a point differential of +3.3. The Sixers are 3-7 with a point differential of -5.7.

Even adjusting for spread, the Celtics (-0.1) have outperformed the 76ers (-3.7), yet the gap does tighten -- and that's quite relevant. This helps adjust for injuries and opponents, making these numbers intriguing.

numberFire's model is recommending a lean on the Sixers' spread (+2.5). The model sees the 76ers covering at a 53.4% probability.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans

Here's another near-lean: a one-star option on the New Orleans Pelicans (+3.5) to cover at home against the Dallas Mavericks. That means the model at numberFire recommends a one-unit wager here.

The Pelicans rate out as 56.8% likely to cover at home, where they are 3-7 with a -1.4 point differential (but a spread-adjusted point differential of +2.5). In total, they have covered in 6 of those 10 games.

Dallas hasn't traveled well, though, making the Pelicans' decent-at-best home data look better.

The Mavericks are 4-6 in 10 road games with a -5.7 point differential and a -3.6 spread-adjusted point differential (the third-worst mark in the NBA).

My model sees this game as a pick'em, so that's another tick toward taking the points.

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks

numberFire's model loves the Milwaukee Bucks (13-8) and not the Charlotte Hornets (13-10) to pick up a 14th win tonight.

The model sees that as 83.8% likely to occur, which is substantially higher than my model's win rate for Milwaukee (73.4%). Their moneyline odds (-370) imply a 78.7% win chance, so while my model isn't quite there, numberFire's is.

With the heavy overall probability, the 7.1% return on investment leads to a three-star recommendation from numberFire's algorithm.

numberFire's model also likes the Bucks to cover (-8.5) at a 57.7% rate, good for an expected return of 10.1% and a two-star recommendation.

In games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton both playing, the Bucks have a non-garbage-time net rating of +10.8.

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers

The team of the night, via numberFire's model, is the Los Angeles Clippers.

Their spread (-6.5) is getting a three-star recommendation, and their moneyline (-270) is a full five-star recommendation. numberFire's algorithm has the Clippers' win odds way up at 87.7%.

Similar to the analysis with the Bucks game, my model has them at 70.7%. It's still a solid favorite, but numberFire's model is way in on these two teams.

Based on the 25 most comparable games to this one, historically, in our database, teams representing the Clippers have won 80.0% of the time. They also have covered in 64.0%.

The Sacramento Kings couldn't be more average on the road (5-6 record with a spread-adjusted point differential of 0.0).