3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 12/1/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jeff Green Over 3.5 Rebounds (+104)
The theme for tonight is digging into some rebounding props.
The first comes with a plus-money over recommendation on Jeff Green's rebounding prop of 3.5 (+104). Green has averaged just 2.7 rebounds per game and 0.11 rebounds per minute.
That rate is down from 0.14 rebounds per minute over his four-year average, yet he's not rebounding that poorly. He has actually secured 58.2% of his rebounding chances, up from the NBA average of 57.2%.
numberFire's model is projecting a return to form for Green tonight in the rebounding column: 4.3 boards over 30.1 minutes (0.14 per minute).
The Orlando Magic rank 21st in rebounding rate over their past 10 games and allow 36.9 rebounds per game to opposing frontcourt players in that span, as well. That puts them 29th in the NBA.
It's a plus rebounding matchup, then, and Green sets up well to get to four rebounds or more.
Al Horford Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
Al Horford has been a rebounding machine this season. He's up to 8.3 rebounds per game with a rebound conversion rate of 64.7% (113% of the NBA average).
That has his per-minute rebounding rate up to 0.29 this season -- better than a four-year average of 0.24.
Yes, there's some regression expected, but even if you scaled back his rebounding success rate to an NBA average, the sheer number of chances he's generating on a per-minute basis (0.45) is good enough to project him for 7.5 rebounds as a baseline across the 29.4 minutes he's projected for by numberFire's model.
The Philadelphia 76ers allow 1.01 rebounds per minute in 11 games during which Joel Embiid has played and 0.96 in games without him, so we probably don't need to scale back expectation for Horford too much here.
numberFire projects Horford for 7.7 rebounds.
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 4.5 Rebounds (+106)
Let's go back to a plus-money rebounding option here with Dorian Finney-Smith's prop (4.5 at +106).
Finney-Smith's per-game average is right on the button: 4.5 rebounds.
At an NBA average conversion rate, Finney-Smith should be getting 4.9 boards per game across his 8.6 chances per contest.
Regression should be on the way for him, then. Finney-Smith's rebounding rate this season is 0.14 per minute. His expected rebounding rate is 0.16 per minute, and his four-year average is 0.18 per minute.
The rebounding output is still good, and the peripherals all suggest a return to form soon.
numberFire projects Finney-Smith for 5.1 rebounds tonight.