NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/24/21: Can Big Underdogs Keep It Close?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Nov 24th, 2021
The 76ers could be without key players, but is the spread too large against the Warriors? Which other bets can we target?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies

Both sides here are flirting with .500 records (the Toronto Raptors are 8-10 and the Memphis Grizzlies are 9-8).

There's a clear side the model at numberFire is siding with, and that's the home Grizzlies, who are drawing a 65.6% win probability.

That leads to a two-star recommendation on their moneyline (-154), which means we can bet two units on the Grizzlies to win.The expected return on that bet is 8.2%.

The Grizzlies have been rather up-and-down in recent games: a 119-118 win over the Utah Jazz, a 138-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, a 120-108 win over the Los Angeles Clippers, a 136-102 win over the Houston Rockets, and a 112-101 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Overall, they have covered 50.0% of their past 10 games by an average of 4.0 points.

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder

There are a few massive spreads tonight, and that includes this game.

The 6-11 Oklahoma City Thunder are +13.5 at home against the 11-6 Jazz.

numberFire's model sees that spread as too great and projects a median score of 115.7 to 104.7 (an 11.0-point gap).

In total, the Thunder are rating out as 58.4% likely to cover the spread, which is good for an expected return of 11.5%.

Since 2016, home teams who are 11.5- to 15.5-point underdogs have covered at a 56.6% clip.

Even at a net rating of -10.8 without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it's hard to hate such a heavy spread. My model, after adjusting for injuries, sees the spread as 10.0.

Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs' spread (+4.0) and their moneyline (+148) are each getting two-star traction according to numberFire's model for tonight.

Despite a 2-8 record over their past 10 games, their point differential in that span is only -5.2, which isn't great, but there are much worse 2-8 teams of late (namely the Pelicans [-10.0] and Orlando Magic [-11.8]).

The Atlanta Hawks have merely played to baseline expectations in their past 10 (with a -0.5 spread-adjusted point differential in that span).

numberFire's model sees the Spurs as 58.7% likely to cover the spread, leading to a return of 12.1%.

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors

Even if we look at the Philadelphia 76ers' splits without Joel Embiid (out), Tobias Harris (questionable), Danny Green (questionable), and Seth Curry (questionable) and compare it to the Golden State Warriors' data without Andre Iguodala (out), this game could stay close.

At least, it could stay close relative to the 10.5-point spread that's in place in favor of the Warriors.

My model -- accounting for those injuries -- anticipated a spread of -8.5 for the Warriors.

numberFire's model also sees the 76ers to cover as a four-star wager. The expected return is 30.3%, making it one of the best bets of the night per the model.