3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/9/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jordan Clarkson Over 14.5 Points (-112)

I'm going to stick with some points props for tonight's three-game slate because that's where some of the best value is emerging.

Jordan Clarkson has averaged 14.4 points per game this season and is projected for 15.1 tonight by numberFire across 24.2 minutes. That's a per-minute rate of 0.63.

That's up from his actual in-season rate of 0.57 points per minute -- but still isn't as high as his four-year average of 0.64.

In fact, if you take his projected shot volume tonight (5.7 two-point attempts, 7.9 three-point attempts, and 1.7 free-throw attempts) and assume he'll convert at his four-year percentages, he'd score 15.5 points rather than the 15.1 he's projected for.

Assuming the 15.1-point baseline, my simulation model would put Clarkson's over odds at 55.6%.

Norman Powell Over 15.5 Points (-106)

A similar projection gap (16.1 points) over his prop (15.5) exists for Norman Powell as does for Clarkson.

Powell's per-game average this season is 17.4 points, so he's anticipated for a return of his long-term per-minute scoring rate. He's converted 0.62 points per minute this season, up from a four-year average of 0.55.

Even at the lower 0.55 point-per-minute rate, he'd be projected for 16.7 points over 30.4 minutes (numberFire's projection) against the Los Angeles Clippers, who do rank second in estimated defensive rating.

Simply put, though, the projected opportunity is great, and Powell at -106 to go over makes for a good prop bet opportunity tonight.

Reggie Jackson Under 18.5 Points (-118)

Let's get an under in here.

Reggie Jackson is slated for just 17.0 points across 34.6 minutes tonight on the other side of that game featuring Powell. The Portland Trail Blazers rank as just a league-average defense this season, yet Jackson has a tough hill to climb to get to 19.0 points.

On the season, Jackson is averaging 17.0 points while experiencing a dip in his effective field goal percentage (46.7%). That's down from 55.4% a year ago and 51.4% over his past four seasons.

But the drop from 55.4% -- easily a career-best mark and only the second season he's had above 50.4% -- might be sustained, given how much of an outlier he was in the efficiency department a year ago.

At his four-year shooting averages, Jackson should actually be projected for 16.7 points on his anticipated shot volume tonight.