NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 10/28/21: Will the Warriors Rack Up Another Win?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

There isn't a lot of value early on Thursday, according to our betting model. Across spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, there are no three-star opportunities. Just a boatload of one- and two-star recommendations.

One of the two-star options (meaning we'd recommend a two-unit wager) is on the 3-1 Washington Wizards to cover (+2.5) as home underdogs against the 3-1 Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks have a +10.3 point differential. While they have still overperformed versus the spread, their spread-adjusted point differential falls to +3.6. They have been favored in every game so far and have covered in two of four games.

The Wizards are the inverse: they also have positive raw point differentials (+2.8) and spread-adjusted point differentials (+6.5), but their adjusted number is more promising than the raw number.

The Wizards have covered in three of four matchups.

Our model sees the Wizards covering this spread at a 58.0% rate, suggesting a 10.7% return on investment.

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

This game has some question marks with some key players.

The Detroit Pistons list Jerami Grant as questionable with his elbow injury, and the Philadelphia 76ers list Joel Embiid as questionable with a knee injury.

Philadelphia's offensive rating falls from 113.7 with Embiid to 111.4 without him; the Pistons' offensive rating doesn't crack 100.0 with or without Grant. Their overall offensive rating (91.0) is the only rate below 100.2 in the NBA.

That makes some sense for the under (217.5) being the two-star recommendation here.

In total, the Pistons have gone over their closing total in one of three games so far and over their own implied team total in just one of three, as well.

The Sixers have a 75.0% under rate through their four games. Opponents have hit the over on their implied total in three of four, but Philadelphia did it in just one of four.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

The undefeated Golden State Warriors host the 2-2 Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and our model expects the Warriors to move to a flawless 5-0.

Golden State rates out as 73.2% likely to pick up their fifth win, odds that outperform their moneyline odds (-235; 70.2%).

That leads to a slight expected return (4.4%), but given the confidence factor of their win, our model rates this as a two-star opportunity (out of five). That means we can put down a two-unit wager on it.

The Warriors are up to a +7.3 point differential and even adjusted for spread, they are a +4.0. They themselves have gotten over their implied total in just one of four games, but their opponents have done the same just once.

As for the Grizzlies, their .500 record comes with a -1.3 point differential, but they've outperformed their implied team total by an average of 4.6 points. That adds up, as they have the NBA's best offensive rating thus far (115.1).

The Grizzlies played last night, a 116-96 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. The Warriors have a day of rest. Home favorites with a day of rest advantage since 2016 have won at a 70.5% clip.

Our model also sees the Warriors covering (-5.5) but views it as a less appealing bet overall, rating it as a one-star opportunity.