3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 10/27/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden Over 6.5 Rebounds (-118)
This prop very easily could get bet up, so we should grab it while we can.
James Harden has collected 8, 7, 7, and 6 rebounds through his four games for an average of 7.0 per game. He also has seen 13.2 rebounding chances per game, a top-50 mark in the NBA -- including all forwards and bigs -- and 7th among guards.
At a league-average conversion rate, Harden should be at 7.2 rebounds per game, so he's about on par there. Using his expected rebounding rate across the 35.7 minutes he's projected for tonight, we could anticipate a median baseline projection of 7.8 rebounds.
That's a tinge higher than what numberFire's actual projection is (7.6).
Either way, that's comfortably above the 6.5 prop he's listed at, and my prop simulation model suggests we can bet the over at odds as heavy as -182 for even value expectations.
Gary Trent Jr. Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+134)
We've seen some pretty consistent, heavy three-point volume from Gary Trent Jr. this season: he has taken 3, 6, 6, and 9 three-point attempts through four games for an average of 6.0 per game. That'll work.
Notably, those season-high 9 attempts came against the Chicago Bulls, who rank second in three-point attempt rate allowed (33.0%); so, despite facing a team that limits chances from the arc, Trent Jr. let it fly from deep on 9 of his 15 field goal attempts.
The Indiana Pacers, his opponent tonight, also rank top-10 in three-point attempt rate allowed, yet the volume has been there for Trent either way, and we're getting +134 odds on his over prop.
numberFire projects Trent Jr. for 2.8 made threes on 7.3 attempts.
Using the 2.8 projection as his baseline, my prop simulation model views Trent Jr. as 55.5% likely to get to 3 made threes, which would make his over bettable at -125 odds.
Chris Paul Over 3.5 Rebounds (+122)
I don't usually feature three overs, but when we have plus-money options, I'm a lot more okay with it.
Chris Paul has secured 4, 5, and 2 rebounds in his three games for an average of 3.7 per game.
That's in line with his expected rebounding rate of 3.5 based on his number of rebounding chances, and at his projected minutes rate, we should anticipate a baseline of around 3.6 rebounds tonight.
numberFire's projection is even higher: 4.3 boards.
Paul, if I use the lower baseline of 3.6 rebounds, should go over 3.5 at a 53.2% clip (suggesting over odds of -114).
At the higher 4.3 projection numberFire has him at, he should be considered 64.1% likely to go over (making the over bettable until -179 odds).