NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/26/21: Sticking With Over/Unders Early in the Season
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
This season, unders have been all the rage, and 40.8% of games have gone under the closing total thus far, based on odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. That's not the case at every book, but it's noteworthy -- and FanDuel Sportsbook is where I gather my data from.
And our model is still focusing more on point totals than on spreads and moneylines early in the season, so that definitely aligns.
There's a 69.5% probability for this game to stick under 217.0, per our model, and according to the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, 22 of the 25 (88.0%) hit the under.
Last season, these two teams played three times, and the under hit in all three -- by an average of 17.2 points -- despite low (yet similar) over/unders of 211.0, 219.0, and 215.5.
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Overall, our model sees the under as a two-star wager and expects this game to go over the posted total (223.5) 60.9% of the time. That's good for an expected return on investment of 16.2%.
So far, these teams are a combined 2-4 on overs through six games, with each 1-2 in that department, but they did go over in 2 of their 3 matchups a year ago and did so by an average of 10.3 points on totals of 223.5, 225.5, and 224.0 -- right in line with what the number is for tonight's matchup.
Since 2012, games with spreads between 7.0 and 12.0 and with over/unders between 220.0 and 230.0 have gone over at a 52.4% clip, and since last season, such games have gone over at a 56.5% clip.
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Here's another under for ya. The total is 223.5, and our model sees that as too high.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the most under-friendly team in the NBA since the start of last season, as just 40.5% of their games have gone over the closing total, per my database. The San Antonio Spurs have done so at a 51.3% clip: well within the range of the NBA average.
In two of three matchups last season, these teams played to the under, and they did so by an average of 6.7 points across all three games.
In total, 23 of 25 of the most comparable games to this matchup historically in our database wound up hitting the under, good for a 92.0% rate.
With the total climbing (from 220.0 to 223.5), our model recommends going against the grain for an under bet with a good amount of confidence (70.4%).