3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 10/26/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 Rebounds (-102)
For Keldon Johnson to hit the over on this prop, he'll roughly need to double his per-game rate of rebounds (3.3 through three games), so why target it?
Well, for one, the juice is low at -102, making it close to an even-money proposition.
Also, he has played at least 27.7 minutes in his three games and is projected by our model for 32.2 minutes against the Los Angeles Lakers.
The opportunity should be there from a minutes perspective, and the Lakers are just 25th in rebounding rate on the season. That should let the per-minute rate for Johnson to go up from what it has been.
Johnson also has averaged 7.7 rebound chances per game but has hauled in around 50% of those opportunities, down from the NBA average of 58.8%.
Overall, numberFire projects Johnson for a baseline rebounding expectation of 6.8.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+100)
Even-money props are always fun, but that's not the only reason I like the over for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's three-point potential.
His matchup with the Golden State Warriors should lead to elevated three-point chances. So far this season, the Warriors have allowed 42.7 three-point attempts per game (3rd-most) and a 46.4% three-point attempt rate (5th-highest).
numberFire projects SGA for 1.8 made threes on 4.4 attempts, and using historical regression and my prop simulator, he should be considered 57.5% likely to get to 2 made threes at such a high baseline.
That would make his over a fair bet at -135, but we have it available at +100.
Monte Morris Under 3.5 Assists (+116)
Even-money props are always fun, but plus-money props are even better!
Monte Morris is listed at -142 to get over this assist number but +116 to fall under it.
numberFire's data is pretty on the mark (we project him for 3.3 assists across 28.1 minutes), and that's where the odds come into play.
That plus his underlying assist data.
Notably, Morris has averaged that same number of assists per game (3.3) that our model projects him for, yet his teammates have converted on his passes at a higher clip than usual.
He should have closer to 3.0 assists per game at a league-average conversion rate.
It sounds like a small differential, but it's worth discussing when it comes to props.
At a baseline of 3.3 assists, Morris projects as 52.9% likely to stay under 4 assists (suggesting -112 odds). At a baseline of 3.0, he'd be 59.3% likely to stay under (or -146).