NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 10/25/21

Pat Connaughton's rebounding prop is showing plenty of value tonight. Which other props look like winners?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Pat Connaughton Over 5.5 Rebounds (-128)

Pat Connaughton's rebounds per game number (4.7) won't do enough to sell you on the over here, but that's okay, because there's a lot more to player props than just per-game averages.

Connaughton has recorded 3, 4, and 7 rebounds thus far across a per-game average of 31.4 minutes through three contests, and numberFire's model anticipates a slight boost for him tonight (32.3) in that department.

Along with that, Connaughton should actually have a great path to rebounding output, as he has averaged 9.0 rebounding chances per game.

At a league-average conversion rate, he should have around 5.3 rebounds per game, so at his minutes projection for tonight plus that rate, he should be projected to get 5.5 rebounds.

Our model is even higher overall on his rebounding expectations and projects him for 6.5 boards tonight.

Using that as a baseline, my simulation model would expect Connaughton to get to 6 rebounds at around a 62.7% rate (suggesting -168 odds on the over).

Devonte' Graham Under 16.5 Points (-112)

We'll have an easy time justifying this prop, given that numberFire's projection for Devonte' Graham's points output is just 14.9 across his projected 29.6 minutes.

Graham has, thus far, averaged 16.7 points through three games and is coming off of a 1-for-10 game from beyond the arc, which might suggest some positive regression in the shooting department. But he had been 10 of 17 (58.8%) from three in his first two games, so that balanced things out.

Overall, Graham is shooting 37.7% from the field and 55.4% from an effective field goal percentage standpoint.

The field goal percentage is nearly identical to the 37.6% career rate he has had, but the effective field goal percentage is notably higher than his career rate (49.3%). Even if we remove his initial inefficient season, he's been at 50.2% in his career with the effective field goal percentage.

We're still projecting him for 16.8 field goal attempts with 8.3 three-point attempts but for more of his long-term efficiency tonight, which should leave him shy of 17 points.

Jaden McDaniels Over 6.5 Points (-120)

Here's another spot where the points projection at numberFire gives us some pretty obvious value from a baseline standpoint.

Jaden McDaniels is expected to score 7.2 points tonight across 29.6 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans.

McDaniels is averaging only 4.0 points per game in two contests but is projected for a workload bump (as he had averaged just 26.4 minutes through his first two games).

Our model expects him to put up 7.0 shot attempts tonight.

McDaniels has yet to get to the free-throw line or make a three (on just three attempts), which has bogged down the output on his limited shot attempts (10 total field goals).

My simulation model -- using numberFire's median projections as the base -- expects McDaniels to score at least 7 points 59.1% of the time, suggesting -144 odds on the over.