3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 10/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Evan Fournier Over 2.5 Assists (-120)
We'll get an Evan Fournier revenge game tonight against the Orlando Magic, and I won't lie: that always helps with over bets.
But the real reason for going this route is that our projections at numberFire are pointing to value on Fournier's assist prop.
Our model anticipates Fournier to get to 3.5 assists across 33.9 minutes against the Magic, a team that sits 29th in estimated defensive rating after their opening game.
The Knicks' guard did get to three helpers in a double-overtime game on opening night and did have 5.0 potential assists in his time on the court.
My simulation model -- based on historical ranges of outcomes and a player's projected rate for the night -- expects Fournier to go over this prop 66.2% of the time.
Royce O'Neale Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Royce O'Neale was able to gather 6 rebounds across 28.1 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Utah Jazz' first game of the season, and he's projected for a similar minutes rate (29.5) tonight, according to our algorithm.
Along with that near-30 minute projection, O'Neale is attached to a rebounding projection of 6.2 against the Sacramento Kings, a team that is 27th in estimated rebounding rate after 48 minutes of action this season.
O'Neale averaged 6.9 boards per game a year ago across 32.2 minutes, effectively numbers he's projected for tonight.
My simulation model has O'Neale getting to 6 rebounds 59.1% of the time, suggesting the over odds should be -144.
Carmelo Anthony Under 12.5 Points (-116)
The early return on Carmelo Anthony's stint with the Los Angeles Lakers was a little lackluster for sure.
The former scoring champion's first game with the Lake Show led to 9 field goal attempts and 9 points across 26.1 minutes.
We can't just copy and paste that result for every game thereafter, of course, but it's well worth noting that the total in the Lakers/Phoenix Suns game is trending down, and that's not ideal for players exceeding their point props.
Anthony is getting a baseline projection of 10.2 points, according to numberFire's algorithm, over 21.4 minutes.
He's also projected for only 7.6 shot attempts in that span, so he'd need to overperform his shot attempt projection or turn in a super-elite efficiency game against the Suns to net a baker's dozen.
My model says that Anthony only 34.8% likely to go over this total, making the under appear valuable up until we get odds of -187.