NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 10/22/21: 3 Over/Under Bets Our Algorithm Absolutely Loves

Our algorithm is finding a lot of betting value on some point totals tonight. Which games have the opportunities -- and which sides should we bet?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers

The algorithm is sounding the five-star alarm on this game's under (225.5 points), so we have to check it out.

The model at numberFire indicates a pretty elite 73.8% probability that this game stays at 225 points or lower, which suggests a 40.9% return on your bets.

Of the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, 18 of them (72.0%), hit their unders.

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, these two teams are both top nine in under rate, which helps us get there, as well. And this matchup went under in two of three matchups last season.

We've also seen movement on the line from 225.5 down to 225.0 before it ticked back up, so we're probably safe to trust the algo and trends here and bet the under while it's still at 225.5.

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards

The model is also going nuts for the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards total, only this time, it's on the over (228.0).

After seeing the Wizards play the Toronto Raptors to a 98-83 score on Wednesday, you might want to worry a bit about their part in a game hitting the over, so let's dig in there.

First, it was a blowout, and their win probability at halftime was 89.4%.

Also, yes, they had an offensive rating of just 94.4 in that game -- plus a defensive rating of 80.0 -- but their estimated pace was still league average, and the Pacers' was top-three.

Notably, these teams played to the over four times in four matchups a year ago and did so by an average of 26.9 points. It makes sense that the model likes the over here.

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

A third five-star over/under option that our algorithm is identifying, you say? I have to keep up with that trend here. And this is despite the over/under already being bet down from 223.0 to 221.5 (and some books other than FanDuel Sportsbook launched the total up around 226.0 or higher).

numberFire's algorithm is identifying a 72.0% probability that the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers complete their game shy of 222 total points to make good on the 221.5-point over/under.

That heavy probability leads to an expected return of 37.5%.

The Suns and Lakers played to an under record of 5-3-1 last season (so a 62.5% under rate excluding the push game), and their games, in total, averaged 5.2 points under the posted over/under.

Ultimately, 21 of the 25 most comparable games to this matchup in our database resulted in a win on the under.