​WNBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/7/21

Betting on the WNBA can be daunting to a newcomer. Even if you’re a longtime hoops fan, the W might look different to you than other pro leagues, and information like lineups and injuries is harder to track.

That’s why we’re here, though: numberFire will help you find the news and data that is the most relevant, so that you can get a handle on the day’s games. Our oddsFire section of the site is particularly handy, as it allows you to track line movement and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where does my projection model and how do the betting trends identify value for Tuesday, September 7th on NBA Finals odds?

Connecticut Sun (-470) at Dallas Wings (+340)

Spread: Sun -8.5
Total: 148.5

It should be no surprise at this point, if you’ve been reading my WNBA betting guides, that the Connecticut Sun are in pole position to waltz away with the top seed for the playoffs and possibly their first championship in franchise history. Forward Jonquel Jones and center Brionna Jones have been the keys to their success inside, which seems like the key to tonight’s game. The Sun have posted an unbelievably staunch 88.5 Defensive Rating over their last 10 games, while driving the pace at a league slowest 75.0 possessions per 40 minutes. The anaconda strategy has worked well for them, but for bettors on their side it has been rough; the Sun are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) when favored by eight or more points.

The Dallas Wings are desperately trying to hold onto playoff hope in these last games, especially on their home court. Losing top forward Isabelle Harrison (out, illness) and wing Satou Sabally (out, Achilles) is a huge blow to those hopes. Even worse when facing the Sun is the possible absence of center Bella Alarie (questionable, knee). If the Wings cede the key to the Sun, this game will remain slow as molasses, but Dallas holds the third-slowest pace over their last 10 games (77.1). They’ve hemorrhaged points as of late as well, with the second-worst 10-game Defensive Rating at 104.5.

The under has the slight edge in big Sun favorite games (4-5 record when 8-point favorites or more), and Dallas has hit a ton of under lately as well. With two of their top-scoring options out, Dallas won’t be able to challenge the Sun’s defensive supremacy either, allowing this game to likely end up a slow blowout. My models project that, despite these factors, it will be tough for Connecticut to cover an -8.5-point spread, but I don’t feel comfortable leaning to the Wings on the side. Instead, I would take the under, especially if the number continues to rise.

Washington Mystics (+360) at Seattle Storm (-500)

Spread: Storm -9.5
Total: 163.5

This line opened at 162.5 and has been rising since, while the Seattle Storm opened as 11-point favorites, which has fallen off a bit. The Storm, despite a 19-10 record that’s good for third-best in the W, have dropped 12 of their last 13 games ATS as a favorite. In seven games as a nine-point favorite or more this season, in fact, Seattle has gone 1-10 ATS. The Storm – boasting perhaps the W’s best “big three”, with point guard Sue Bird, shooting guard Jewell Loyd, and forward Breanna Stewart – win a ton of games, but their M.O. isn’t to smash opponents into dust. They get out to an early lead and then grind the game out.

The Washington Mystics looked poised to get back into playoff contention but lost forward Elena Delle Donne (questionable, back) two games into her comeback and now are, possibly, without dynamic forward Myisha Hines-Allen (questionable, illness). This game surely represents some extra motivation for the women of Washington, but it won’t be easy sledding. As nine-point underdogs or more this season, the Mystics have gone 4-2 ATS, and have taken the last four games ATS against the Storm when playing in Seattle to boot.

There is a ton of value on Washington’s side despite the seemingly long odds here. My models project this game to remain close due to the slow pace from the Storm, while Washington plays quicker without Delle Donne to make up for her loss. In addition, across every game Seattle has been a nine-point favorite or more in 2021, the over has hit just once, while the under is 4-1 in these teams’ last five meetings. A total of 163.5 is one of the lower over/unders they’ve seen among those games, but the under is still worthwhile here because of this.