The marquee Christmas matchup sees the Heat taking on the Thunder in a rematch of last year’s Finals. Each team is ranked second in their respective conference by our nERD rankings, so expect a competitive matchup that will be decided by a few key factors.

Miami’s Shooting

Led by NBA.com, one of the biggest changes is in Kevin Durant’s shooting. He increased his threes attempted per 36 minutes from 4.7, his season average, to 5.6 in the playoffs last year while slightly improving his shooting percentages from beyond the arc.

The most significant difference in LeBron’s game is that he becomes more of a facilitator when Kevin Durant is on the floor. In last year’s playoffs, he got assists at a rate of 6.3 per 36 minutes as opposed to his average of 4.7 assists per 36 minutes. Pertinent to the note about fouling, LeBron’s fouling rate dropped significantly when he was playing against Durant. As such, he is unlikely to get into foul trouble in this game.