NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 6/17/21: Will the Bucks Bounce Back?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jun 17th, 2021
Milwaukee faces elimination. How likely is that to occur, according to numberFire's model?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Brooklyn Nets (+198) at Milwaukee Bucks (-240)

Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
Total: 220.0

The Brooklyn Nets were able to hold serve at home in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead over the Bucks but had to do so without Kyrie Irving, who is again out tonight.

They did get James Harden back for Game 5, and Harden played 45.7 minutes after being out for -- virtually -- four straight games. Harden was not quite himself and shot just 1 of 10 from the field and 0 of 8 from beyond the arc.

numberFire's model is anticipating this series getting to Game 7 a heavy 76.0% of the time, meaning the algorithm's moneyline preference is the Bucks (-240), which gets a two-star recommendation out five. That's tied to an expected return of 7.7% on bets.

There's some smart money indications on the Bucks' moneyline, as well: while 37% of betting tickets are on the Bucks to win outright, that comes with 47% of the money.

Using recent data and adjusting for health, my model likes Milwaukee to win 59.4% of the time, not nearly as heavily as numberFire's model but still significant.

There's also a lot of agreement on the over.

The public has a nice 69% of money on the over, and numberFire's model sees this game hitting the over an astounding 78.7% of the time, good for an expected return of 50.3%. That's wild, and it's a five-star recommendation. My model has the over at 68.7% likely, which is also nice to see.

Notably, the under is 6-1-1 in this season series, but the average over/under has been 236.0 points in those games. The average point total has been 218.5, in the ballpark of the 220.0-point over/under tonight. So the the over/under trends probably don't apply here.

I'll be in on the over and the Bucks moneyline.