3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/16/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
John Collins Under 15.5 Points (-118)
The baseline projection for John Collins' point output for tonight, according to our betting model, is only 14.6, putting us on the under for the night.
Collins had a big Game 4 with 12 rebounds but has been sporadic with his scoring in this series: 21, 8, 23, and 14 points, respectively.
Collins has scored 16 or more points in 36 of 72 games this season, so exactly half, and he has averaged 15.7 against the Philadelphia 76ers with four games under 16 points this season.
Based on the median projection at numberFire, Collins is rating out as 55.3% likely to stay under, giving us some slight value on the prop.
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds (-105)
Rudy Gobert will need a baker's dozen in the rebounding column to hit the over here, something he has done in just one of four games in this series but in three of seven games this season against the Los Angeles Clippers.
In total, our model at numberFire is anticipating Gobert to get 13.4 rebound across 32.2 minutes of action tonight.
Using Gobert's projected baseline and his usual variance in rebounding, he should be 57.3% likely to go over his prop, suggesting over odds of -134. That gives us value here.
Bojan Bogdanovic Over 1.5 Assists (-112)
I always like overs on low props, and numberFire's algorithm is pretty good with doing the same on Bojan Bogdanovic's assist prop.
The model projects Bogdanovic for 2.0 assists across 36.8 minutes. He is coming off of a five-assist game in his last outing after having a lone assist in three games prior.
Despite the heavy assist correction in Game 4, he's still a little behind on his usual per-minute assist numbers in the series, another reason to lead us toward the over.
With the high assist baseline (at least relative to the low prop), Bogdanovic is 62.3% likely to hit the over here, obliterating the -112 odds attached to the over.