NBA Betting Guide for Friday 6/11/21: Can Denver Stop Phoenix From Going Up 3-0?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Philadelphia 76ers (-116) vs. Atlanta Hawks (-102)
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -1.0
Total: 224.0
This series heads to Atlanta -- where the Hawks have won 13 straight -- tied 1-1. But they aren't favored. Instead, it's the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
The 76ers have a coincidental net rating of 7.6 in this series despite the even split in games won, and they hold an advantage in effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio, as well.
numberFire's model isn't seeing much in the way of recommendations on the moneyline (no pick) or the spread (Atlanta +1.0 is a one-star recommendation out of five).
Overall, the 76ers are rating out as 50.6% likely to win, making this one as tight by the algorithm's predictions as it is by the bookmakers' predictions.
According to oddsFire, the betting public, though, is heavy on the 76ers, placing 86% of the money on them to cover the spread and 79% of the money on them to win outright.
My betting model -- using recent, relevant data -- favors the 76ers by 1.0 point, not enough to get excited to back either the moneyline or the spread.
numberFire's algorithm is loving the under most of any option tonight in either game. The under is a four-star recommendation out of five and is rating out as 68.5% likely to occur.
Three of the five meetings thus far between these two squads this season have hit the under, and my model prefers the under -- but a lot less so (53.9%) than numberFire's -- so that's the primary action I'd like to get here.
The two models ultimately don't recommend a spread or moneyline bet, though the public loves the 76ers.
Phoenix Suns (+106) vs. Denver Nuggets (-124)
Spread: Denver Nuggets -1.5
Total: 223.0
The Nuggets have won 15 of their past 18 games at home, which is vital for them down 2-0 in the series to the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix has a semifinals-best 19.4 net rating over their opponent and leads the round in assist-to-turnover ratio, true shooting percentage, and rebounding rate.
Denver has their work cut out for them to turn things around.
numberFire's algorithm is expecting them to do so, rating them as 62.8% likely to pick up the victory here. That contrasts with the public moneyline picks, which have 77% of the tickets and 82% of the money on the Suns to move to 3-0.
The public is also in on the Suns to keep it close and cover as a slight underdog: two-thirds of the money and tickets are on them to do it. numberFire's model likes Denver -1.5 as a one-star recommendation, however.
My model is liking the Suns pretty handily (all things considered), seeing them as a 3.5-point favorite as a baseline, so I'm going to use that tiebreaker to side with Phoenix plus the points.
The over/under is playing out as it almost always does: numberFire's model loves the under (rating it as 64.3% likely), the public loves the over (with 83% of the money on the over), and my model is in between (52.6% on the over).
The over has hit in four of seven meetings this season between these two teams. These games have outscored the over/under by an average of 3.5 points.
I'm mostly interested in the under here again, and even though the heart says Denver, I'm leaning Phoenix +1.5.
