3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/11/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trae Young Over 3.5 Rebounds (+112)
Trae Young is listed at plus money to go over 3.5 rebounds after he put up just 2 and 3 in Games 1 and 2 in this series, respectively.
But at plus money, why not take a look. And it's not like numberFire's model is projecting Young for more than a full rebound over this prop. Oh wait. He's at 4.6 boards across 36.8 minutes tonight, via numberFire's algorithm.
Young gathers 0.11 rebounds per minute, on average, this season, and so he would get to 4.0 as the baseline using that season-long rate (at the 36.8-minute projection).
Young rates out as 72.4% likely to hit the over on this prop if we use the 4.6-rebound projection and his seasonal variance in rebounds. Even if we use the 4.0 projection, he's more than 60.4% likely to go over.
Deandre Ayton Under 14.5 Points (-102)
Deandre Ayton has twice gone over this point prop in two games in the series against the Denver Nuggets. He scored 20 points in Game 1 and 15 points in Game 2. He did so on 13 and 10 shot attempts after three straight games with fewer than 8 attempts.
Ayton averaged 0.47 points per minute this regular season but 0.50 per minute in home games and 0.45 in away games. At his projected minutes mark of 30.5, that's the difference between 15.3 points and 13.7 points based on those per-minute numbers. numberFire's projection for him is in the middle: 14.3.
If we use that 14.3-point mark as the baseline and his simulate this game out based on his seasonal variance in points scored, Ayton is rating out as a slightly positive value to go under 15 points.
Jae Crowder Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
Jae Crowder has hauled in 5 rebounds in each of the first two games of this series and is projected for 5.1 across 30.8 minutes tonight, according to numberFire's algorithm.
Crowder averages 0.17 rebounds per minute, which would get him to a projection of 5.2 across the projected minutes number he's getting from our model.
A variance-based simulation for Crowder's rebounding numbers show him going over the 4.5-rebound mark 59.9% of the time, suggesting the over odds should be -149.