3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/10/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Blake Griffin Over 1.5 Three-Point Makes (-111)
Blake Griffin has played an important role in this series (the Brooklyn Nets have a plus/minus of +14 against the Milwaukee Bucks in the series with Griffin on the floor), and numberFire's model anticipates Griffin to play 29.0 minutes in this game.
The baseline projection for Griffin's made threes, according to our model, is 1.8.
Griffin has averaged 0.13 three-point attempts per minute with the Nets this season, and that bumps up to 0.16 without James Harden. That rate and his three-point percentage should put him right around 1.9 projected makes, in line with numberFire's projection.
Using Griffin's three-point variance in these relevant games, he's rating out as 63.8% likely to make two treys, implying odds of -176 on the over.
P.J. Tucker Over 3.5 Rebounds (-122)
P.J. Tucker is generating a baseline rebound projection of 4.4, according to numberFire's model, and that's over 28.4 minutes (so 0.15 per minute). That's exactly what his full-season per-minute rebounding rate is.
Tucker has had 4 and 3 rebounds in two games so far this series, and has been living in that range for a few games now.
Tucker's high baseline projection from our model is making him around 69.3% likely to get to 4 boards tonight, making this an over to back.
Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Point Makes (-106)
Paul George hoisted eight three-point attempts in Game 1 of the series between the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz, and that's welcomed volume for an over prop. He made three, which is also great, but the reliability stems from the volume.
Using George's minutes projection (38.3), his season-long three-point attempt rate (0.22 per minute), and his three-point field goal percentage (40.0%), he should put up 8.4 threes and make 3.4, virtually where he was in Game 1.
numberFire's model actually projects him to make 3.6 threes on 8.8 attempts, so a tick higher than my calculated marks.
Either way, even if we use the lower 3.4-made-three baseline, he's rating out as 69.2% likely to hit the over here. That would suggest odds of -225.