NBA Betting Guide for Monday 6/7/21: Targeting the Over/Unders on Monday
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Milwaukee Bucks (+100) at Brooklyn Nets (-118)
Spread: Brooklyn Nets -1.5
Total: 234.5
The Nets churned out a bit of a Pyrrhic Game 1 win in this series, as James Harden didn't even record a full minute before exiting with a hamstring injury. He's ruled out for Game 2.
In 19 games without Harden but with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets are 10-9 despite a net rating of 4.7 and a per-game point differential of 4.6. That 4.6-point point differential suggests they should have won around 65.6% of their games, meaning their in-split record should be closer to 12.5-6.5.
numberFire's model isn't seeing a ton of value on this game and views the Nets as 50.9% likely to win, leading to no pick on either side of the moneyline. The betting public is still backing the Nets, and 64% of moneyline bets are on them to go up 2-0 in the series.
The spread is getting a one-star recommendation from numberFire's algorithm, by way of the Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 points. Our model sees Milwaukee covering 54.5% of the time. This goes against the betting public, which has put 80% of the money on spread bets on the Nets.
The closest we have to consensus is on the over, which our algorithm rates as 55.2% likely to hit, making it a one-star recommendation. There's actually a majority on the over and some smarter money indications: 64% of the tickets are on the over, and that's paired with 77% of the money.
The over, then, is the preferred action in this game, but second up should be Milwaukee +1.5.
Denver Nuggets (+176) at Phoenix Suns (-210)
Spread: Phoenix Suns -5.0
Total: 220.5
This series kicks off with the Suns as -205 series favorites over the Denver Nuggets, suggesting around a 65-35 split in favor of the Suns. We see similar odds for Game 1 in Phoenix.
This season, these two teams went to overtime twice (and one of those was a double-overtime game), but all of those games came in January. Naturally, the extra minutes led to two overs in those overtime games (but one of them had already hit the over at the end of regulation).
Denver won both overtime games, and the real point here is that these games have been close throughout, with an average point differential of 5.0 for the winner.
numberFire's algorithm is light on the big-time recommendations, rating both the Nuggets' moneyline and their spread as one-star plays out of five. Denver is 54.5% likely to cover the 5.0-point spread, and their 36.6% win odds are on par with the moneyline.
The betting public is more or less on par here: 28% of the money is on Denver to win outright, and 38% of the money is on them to cover.
The algorithm prefers the under, rating this game 60.8% likely to stay under 221 points, which is tied to an expected return of 16.1%. The betting public is pretty much all in on the over, however: 82% of the tickets and 86% of the money is on the over.
Of Phoenix's last 15 games, 9 hit the over (60.0%), and the same is true for Denver. My model likes this game to go over outright, so I'm again prioritizing the over/under for this game as well and would once again take the points for the road underdog if looking for a second bet in this matchup.
