The entire NBA community perked up this morning with news that MVP Anthony Davis tonight and the Cavaliers next Thursday) will feature below-average league talent and an ample opportunity for Durant to ease back into MVP form. Over the next 10 days, the Thunder will have a number of easy matchups against Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee and Minnesota, whose combined records are an atrocious 17-51. This provides a favorable climate in which to gradually reinsert Durant.
Last season, the Dallas Mavericks grabbed the eighth and final seed in Western Conference with a 49-33 record. The Thunder finished second overall in the West, ending with a dominant 59-23 record. Assuming that the West this year will stay equally competitive, the Thunder will need to go 44-21 the rest of the season to match the Mavs’ win-loss total last year. In order to finish on pace with their output from a season ago, Durant and company would need to win 54 of their remaining 65 regular season games.
If Durant and Westbrook can return to 2013-14 form, the aforementioned 44-21 seems like an attainable goal. It's been six months since we last watched Durant rain jumpers over the entire NBA, and maybe we’ve forgotten how good he is. Last season, Durant had the highest PER at 29.8, all while leading the league in scoring on 50% shooting. According to our nERD metric, Durant finished last season with the highest rating in the league (27), besting the next highest, LeBron James, by a solid 7 points.
As we saw last year, Durant can single-handedly win games that would otherwise be out of hand. He went through stretches last season with determined scoring barrages that no team could defend. Throw in the most athletic and dynamic point guard in the game (sorry, Derrick Rose), and this Thunder team could be right in the thick of things come the new year.
Still, questions remain surrounding Durant and Westbrook. Outside of Serge Ibaka and Reggie Jackson (the only two sources of offense in the their absence), the Thunder lack skilled position players to compete against top-ranked Western Conference opponents, especially in a seven-game series. Jeremy Lamb and Anthony Morrow are both struggling to fill the role that a once-competent Thabo Sefolosha occupied a few seasons ago and bench productivity has remained a prominent concern.
Nonetheless, the on-court prowess of Durant and Westbrook means that a playoff berth is certainly in the cards. In fact, if the Thunder revert to form and gather a seventh or eighth seed comfortably - our numbers currently give the team a 28.5% chance of making the playoffs now that Durant is back - it will be interesting to see if top-tier coaches like Gregg Popovich will rest their starters with more than just playoff health in mind. If a matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder and the reigning MVP in the first round is looming, first place in the Western Conference may not be as coveted a position as usual. This is certainly a lot of speculation only 20 games into the season, but the impact of Durant cannot be overstated.
All eyes will on KD in New Orleans tonight.