3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Russell Westbrook Under 28.5 Points (-108)
Our model fully expects Russell Westbrook to go nuts on the Cleveland Cavaliers as we have him as the top DFS play of the night. But this line for his point total is just a touch too high.
The Cavs (23rd in pace) are a big pace-down spot for the Washington Wizards (first), and Cleveland has been tough on point guards this season when it comes to scoring, permitting the fifth-fewest points per game to floor generals (22.9).
Russ has gone for 28 or fewer points 19 times in his past 25 games, and we project him for 27.9 points tonight.
Darius Bazley Over 6.5 Rebounds (-140)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are hosting the Utah Jazz in what should be a lopsided game (Jazz are 13.5-point favorites). But a blowout isn't likely to impact Darius Bazley's minutes too much as he's played at least 27 minutes in each of OKC's last four defeats, all of which were by at least 16 points.
Utah has been one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA this campaign, sitting second in rebound rate (53.0%). However, one spot where Utah has struggled rebonding-wise is against power forwards as they surrender the 10th-most boards per game to the position (9.4).
The consistent minutes and rosy matchup bode well for Bazley's rebounding outlook. We project him to snag 7.3 rebounds.
Kyle Anderson Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
Kyle Anderson and the Memphis Grizzlies are at home against the Sacramento Kings in a matchup between two teams that sit in the top 11 in pace. As of early Friday, the total for this game isn't yet posted, but given that both teams have seen at least 224 points scored in each of their last three outings, it'll likely be a pretty big number, and we should see plenty of possessions.
On top of that, the Kings are allowing the sixth-most boards per night to small forwards (8.5) over their last seven games.
Anderson has been quiet on the boards of late, going six straight games without pulling down six-plus rebounds. But prior to this recent run, he'd totaled at least six boards in seven of nine games. Our algorithm has him finishing with 6.6 rebounds in this matchup.
