NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 5/13/21: We Can Target Playoff Discrepancies
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
As always, our algorithm likes the New York Knicks, and it's not just because we've got some Knicks fans on the staff (we do, but that's not why).
New York ranks 5th in the NBA in net rating (6.3) over their past 15 games; by comparison, the San Antonio Spurs are 21st at -0.9 and have just a 7.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to our algorithm. The Knicks have clinched a playoff berth.
Not having Derrick Rose (questionable) would be a sizable loss for the Knicks, but what we're really looking at here is the moneyline (Knicks - 210). Our algorithm rates that as a four-star recommendation out of five and gives New York a 79.9% chance to beat the Spurs.
The recent data and the playoff implications are leading to big money on the Knicks' moneyline (85% of the money) and the now-5.5-point spread (68% of the money).
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
There are smart money indications on the under (225.0) in this game. While the over is receiving 55% of the tickets, it has only 35% of the money. That leaves 45% of the tickets on the under (close to even as it is) and 65% of the money.
And, of course, our algorithm is leaning that way, rating the under as a one-star recommendation. It's 53.7% likely to hit, which isn't super promising, but here's more data to get us to agree with the money.
These teams have middling paces over the past 15 games and below-average adjusted paces since the trade deadline.
Over the past 15 games, these teams' efficiency marks should lead to an over/under of 223.5, per my model, and my opponent-adjusted data since the deadline has it even lower at 220.0.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
The Denver Nuggets are playing for seeding, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are eliminated. Despite that, the spread here is just Denver -4.5, and their moneyline is only -196 (implying 66.2% win odds).
Our model gives Denver a 73.7% chance to win, giving us some value (and leading to an expected return on investment of 9.8%).
Minnesota is 6-4 over their past 10, but it's tied to a net rating of 4.9, ranking sixth in the NBA span. That's one slot behind the Nuggets at 5.9 (which has led to a 7-3 record).
My research has found 15 games to be much more reliable than even 10 games, and in that span, Minnesota's net rating is -0.3 while Denver's is 5.7.
The Denver moneyline, per oddsFire, is receiving 90% of the money, and their spread (-4.5) is getting 68% of the money.
