NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Wednesday 5/12/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
ATL WSH 239.5 -7.0 123.25 120.4 3 109.4 8
LAL HOU 229.5 -13.0 121.25 99.6 28 124.3 30
DAL NO 228.5 -9.5 119.0 116.4 10 108.3 6
BKN SA 231.5 -4.5 118.0 116.0 11 114.3 20
UTAH POR 229.5 -3.5 116.50 119.8 5 113.7 18
WSH ATL 239.5 7.0 116.25 112.0 17 116.1 23
SA BKN 231.5 4.5 113.50 112.0 16 114.3 21
BOS CLE 216.5 -10.0 113.25 114.4 12 121.3 28
POR UTAH 229.5 3.5 113.0 123.6 2 102.7 3
NO DAL 228.5 9.5 109.50 106.1 23 112.3 14
HOU LAL 229.5 13.0 108.25 102.9 25 101.6 1
CLE BOS 216.5 10.0 103.25 99.7 27 112.3 12

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
BKN SA 104.5 2 97.9 19 101.2 115.1 116.5
SA BKN 97.9 19 104.5 2 101.2 113.1 114.5
LAL HOU 97.8 20 102.9 7 100.3 112.0 112.3
HOU LAL 102.9 7 97.8 20 100.3 102.2 102.6
ATL WSH 97.4 21 103.2 5 100.3 114.9 115.2
WSH ATL 103.2 5 97.4 21 100.3 114.0 114.3
DAL NO 97.2 23 101.3 8 99.3 112.3 111.5
NO DAL 101.3 8 97.2 23 99.3 109.2 108.4
UTAH POR 98.3 18 99.9 9 99.1 116.8 115.7
POR UTAH 99.9 9 98.3 18 99.1 113.1 112.1
BOS CLE 99.5 13 96.6 27 98.0 117.9 115.5
CLE BOS 96.6 27 99.5 13 98.0 106.0 103.9

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL WSH 1.04 (24) 0.93 (26) 0.85 (18) 0.94 (15) 1.12 (15)
BKN SA 0.95 (8) 0.89 (19) 0.84 (12) 0.86 (3) 1.21 (26)
BOS CLE 1.07 (27) 0.89 (20) 0.89 (26) 1.01 (25) 1.13 (16)
CLE BOS 0.97 (13) 0.88 (16) 0.81 (10) 0.88 (4) 1.14 (20)
DAL NO 1.06 (26) 0.88 (18) 0.77 (3) 0.98 (20) 1.18 (24)
HOU LAL 0.96 (10) 0.77 (1) 0.80 (7) 0.95 (17) 1.03 (3)
LAL HOU 1.09 (29) 0.95 (29) 0.98 (29) 0.95 (16) 1.32 (30)
NO DAL 0.99 (18) 0.85 (11) 0.73 (1) 0.91 (8) 1.04 (6)
POR UTAH 0.97 (14) 0.80 (6) 0.84 (14) 0.83 (2) 1.08 (11)
SA BKN 0.96 (9) 0.84 (10) 0.82 (11) 1.00 (24) 1.14 (19)
UTAH POR 0.97 (12) 0.84 (9) 0.86 (20) 1.04 (27) 1.04 (7)
WSH ATL 0.98 (16) 0.85 (12) 0.86 (19) 1.03 (26) 1.02 (2)

Related News

An Introduction to FanDuel Research

Jim Sannes  --  May 12th, 2021

FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: NBA Finals Game 5

Austin Swaim  --  May 12th, 2021

NBA Finals: Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 5 (Heat at Nuggets)

Austan Kas  --  May 12th, 2021