NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Monday 5/10/21: Totals Are Showing Value on a Short Slate of Games

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Indiana Pacers have been setting over/unders on fire lately and have hit the over in 62.5% of their post-trade-deadline games. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been dead even with overs and unders in that sample.

Tonight, though, the betting public is on the under (230.5) in this game. oddsFire is showing 58% of the tickets and 57% of the money on the under, which is noteworthy because most games typically receive over love.

numberFire's algorithm rates the under as a two-star recommendation out of five and projects this game to score an average total of 225.0 points. In all, that makes the under 59.3% likely to occur.

The Pacers' injuries and dropping playoff hopes (30.0%, per our algorithm) point to the under here.

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

The Washington Wizards' playoff hopes sit at 41.3%, per our data, and the Atlanta Hawks are at 99.7%, so this one has merit.

However, the Wizards will be without Bradley Beal. In games without Beal but with Russell Westbrook, Washington is just 1-7 with a net rating of -12.6, according to PBPStats.

Using that sample and the Hawks' post-deadline data, my model projects the Hawks to win by 9.0 points, which reflects the shifting line from 6.0 to 8.0 points for the home side. Atlanta -8.0 is the preferred side here.

With how bad the Wizards have been without Beal, The Hawks' moneyline (-335) seems pretty safe: my model shows Atlanta as 79.3% likely to win, which implies a moneyline of -383.

What actually looks best, though, is the under: my model expected a 225.0-point total, given the Wizards' poor offensive efficiency (100.2) without Beal. numberFire's algorithm sees this game staying under 237.0 points 54.5% of the time, as well.

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors

I know this is another over/under (225.0) recommendation, but with the injuries and questionable motivations for some teams in action in this final week, over/unders are showing more value based on the public trends and our algorithm.

The public is placing a whopping 89% of tickets and 91% of money on the over in this game, and numberFire's algorithm sees the over as a one-star recommendation.

The Golden State Warriors have gone over in just 6 of their 16 games (37.5%) since the start of April but have played at an average over/under of 229.6 points. Their actual point totals in those games, however, add up to 224.9, virtually what this line is now.

The Utah Jazz are 8 of 16 (50.0%) on overs since April began but have hit the over in 3 straight and in 5 of their past 7.

The two prior matchups between these sides have totaled 235 and 250 points, smashing over/unders of 228.5 and 234.0, respectively.