NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Monday 5/10/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values now include only data since the NBA trade deadline.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
POR HOU 231.5 -13.5 122.50 122.6 2 123.4 29
ATL WSH 235.5 -7.0 121.25 120.4 3 108.9 7
MIL SA 234.0 -7.5 120.75 118.9 6 113.9 18
IND CLE 228.5 -6.5 117.50 111.1 18 121.5 28
MEM NO 223.5 -10.0 116.75 116.2 10 108.2 6
UTAH GS 228.5 -2.5 115.50 119.9 5 109.7 9
WSH ATL 235.5 7.0 114.25 111.7 16 115.9 24
SA MIL 234.0 7.5 113.25 109.9 19 112.4 14
GS UTAH 228.5 2.5 113.0 111.8 15 101.9 1
CLE IND 228.5 6.5 111.0 100.2 27 114.5 21
HOU POR 231.5 13.5 109.0 102.2 26 112.8 17
NO MEM 223.5 10.0 106.75 106.2 23 112.7 16

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
POR HOU 99.8 10 102.4 7 101.1 123.0 124.4
HOU POR 102.4 7 99.8 10 101.1 107.5 108.7
MEM NO 99.8 11 101.4 8 100.6 112.2 112.9
NO MEM 101.4 8 99.8 11 100.6 109.4 110.1
MIL SA 102.8 6 97.9 20 100.3 116.4 116.7
SA MIL 97.9 20 102.8 6 100.3 111.2 111.5
IND CLE 103.8 4 96.8 26 100.3 116.3 116.6
CLE IND 96.8 26 103.8 4 100.3 107.3 107.6
ATL WSH 97.1 22 103.0 5 100.1 114.6 114.7
WSH ATL 103.0 5 97.1 22 100.1 113.8 113.9
UTAH GS 98.3 18 100.2 9 99.2 114.8 113.9
GS UTAH 100.2 9 98.3 18 99.2 106.9 106.1

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL WSH 1.03 (23) 0.94 (29) 0.84 (17) 0.93 (14) 1.11 (14)
CLE IND 1.03 (22) 0.92 (25) 0.91 (27) 1.00 (23) 1.31 (29)
GS UTAH 0.96 (9) 0.81 (6) 0.84 (16) 0.82 (2) 1.09 (11)
HOU POR 0.97 (12) 0.83 (10) 0.88 (21) 1.04 (28) 1.02 (3)
IND CLE 1.08 (27) 0.88 (21) 0.89 (25) 0.98 (20) 1.13 (16)
MEM NO 1.06 (26) 0.86 (14) 0.76 (3) 0.98 (21) 1.16 (23)
MIL SA 0.96 (11) 0.88 (20) 0.83 (13) 0.85 (3) 1.22 (26)
NO MEM 0.98 (16) 0.88 (19) 0.79 (6) 0.88 (4) 1.33 (30)
POR HOU 1.09 (28) 0.94 (28) 0.97 (29) 0.96 (16) 1.30 (28)
SA MIL 0.98 (18) 0.89 (23) 0.88 (23) 0.92 (10) 1.16 (22)
UTAH GS 1.02 (21) 0.87 (15) 0.85 (18) 0.93 (15) 1.13 (17)
WSH ATL 0.96 (10) 0.85 (12) 0.85 (19) 1.04 (27) 1.01 (2)

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